Stock Valuations, September 2026
At the end of September 2026, across 2,448 covered U.S. stocks, the median model fair value sat 2.2% above the share price, and 54% of the stocks traded below their model estimate. Streaming showed the widest model gap (median +24.6%) and Auto Dealership the narrowest (-18.9%).
Figures are Equity Rank's model fair values (a multi-method blend) as published at the time, comparing 2026-09-01 with 2026-09-30. Gap = model fair value differential versus the price (positive = price below the model estimate). Model estimates under stated assumptions, not investment advice.
By sector
| Sector | Companies | Median gap | Start of month | Below estimate |
|---|
| Streaming | 19 | +24.6% | +19.9% | 79% |
| Consumer Discretionary | 82 | +19.5% | +13.8% | 73% |
| Materials | 55 | +17.8% | +13.8% | 73% |
| Beverages | 17 | +14.9% | +14.3% | 71% |
| Media | 10 | +12.9% | +30.6% | 60% |
| Heavy Machinery | 14 | +12.3% | +13.5% | 64% |
| Real Estate | 145 | +12.1% | +10.6% | 70% |
| Technology | 20 | +11.8% | +1.9% | 55% |
| Specialty Chemicals | 35 | +9.3% | +10.7% | 74% |
| Mortgage REIT | 21 | +7.3% | +7.7% | 76% |
| Consumer Staples | 56 | +7.1% | -4.5% | 57% |
| E-Commerce | 14 | +6.9% | +0.9% | 57% |
| Biotechnology | 65 | +6.6% | +11.8% | 57% |
| Medical Devices | 65 | +6.4% | +2.9% | 59% |
| Asset Management | 93 | +6.2% | +4.0% | 60% |
| Industrials | 226 | +6.1% | +6.1% | 64% |
| Financial Data & Analytics | 10 | +5.5% | +5.4% | 50% |
| Financials | 67 | +5.3% | +6.2% | 61% |
| Internet Platform | 23 | +4.6% | +4.9% | 61% |
| Energy | 145 | +4.0% | -1.5% | 56% |
| Insurance | 79 | +3.9% | +1.8% | 54% |
| Pharmaceuticals | 23 | +2.6% | +4.6% | 70% |
| Protein Processing | 11 | +1.5% | -5.2% | 55% |
| Banks | 238 | +1.4% | +1.6% | 55% |
| Mining | 31 | +1.3% | -0.1% | 55% |
| Software | 140 | +0.9% | +1.8% | 52% |
| Aerospace & Defense | 44 | +0.3% | +0.0% | 50% |
| Communication Services | 20 | +0.2% | -1.7% | 50% |
| Life Sciences Tools | 41 | -1.1% | +0.1% | 44% |
| Cloud Infrastructure | 10 | -1.5% | -1.1% | 50% |
| Specialty Retail | 40 | -1.7% | +1.3% | 45% |
| Freight | 23 | -2.4% | -0.5% | 48% |
| Grocery | 15 | -2.4% | -8.3% | 47% |
| Restaurants | 31 | -2.5% | -4.2% | 45% |
| Fintech | 11 | -3.1% | -15.3% | 46% |
| Gaming | 16 | -3.6% | -5.0% | 44% |
| Drug Manufacturer | 11 | -4.2% | -6.6% | 46% |
| Utilities | 73 | -6.0% | -9.3% | 34% |
| Staffing | 10 | -6.9% | -8.7% | 30% |
| Automotive | 27 | -8.2% | -5.2% | 37% |
| Managed Care | 27 | -9.8% | -11.2% | 30% |
| Medical Facilities | 30 | -10.3% | -9.4% | 40% |
| IT Services | 40 | -10.8% | -13.1% | 33% |
| Advertising | 11 | -11.5% | -13.1% | 27% |
| Semiconductors | 65 | -11.8% | -7.1% | 26% |
| Hardware | 43 | -12.2% | -11.1% | 21% |
| Homebuilders | 19 | -14.3% | -14.2% | 11% |
| Steel | 10 | -14.7% | -22.1% | 10% |
| Auto Dealership | 14 | -18.9% | -10.6% | 36% |
Furthest below model fair value at month end
| Company | Price | Model fair value | Gap |
|---|
| ALL The Allstate Corporation | $224.51 | $400.66 | +78.5% |
| CI Cigna Corp | $275.57 | $477.18 | +73.2% |
| DG Dollar General Corporation | $123.94 | $211.40 | +70.6% |
| BP BP PLC ADR | $43.47 | $73.83 | +69.8% |
| MDT Medtronic PLC | $86.49 | $144.15 | +66.7% |
| CMCSA Comcast Corp | $21.74 | $35.28 | +62.3% |
| SHEL Shell PLC ADR | $95.03 | $153.62 | +61.6% |
| REGN Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc | $750.00 | $1196.00 | +59.5% |
| PYPL PayPal Holdings Inc | $53.66 | $85.12 | +58.6% |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $63.40 | $100.06 | +57.8% |
| TGT Target Corporation | $159.31 | $244.14 | +53.2% |
| EQNR Equinor ASA ADR | $41.38 | $62.01 | +49.9% |
| ACGL Arch Capital Group Ltd. | $94.76 | $135.94 | +43.5% |
| HON Honeywell International Inc | $210.46 | $298.97 | +42.1% |
| GEHC GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | $66.55 | $92.80 | +39.4% |
Large companies valued by at least five methods.
Largest model estimate increases
| Company | Model fair value start → end | Change |
|---|
| WMB Williams Companies Inc | $28.50 → $49.21 | +72.7% |
| SN SharkNinja, Inc. | $87.96 → $134.38 | +52.8% |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc | $174.01 → $265.32 | +52.5% |
| DUK Duke Energy Corporation | $82.79 → $125.00 | +51.0% |
| KO The Coca-Cola Company | $59.65 → $86.06 | +44.3% |
| MDT Medtronic PLC | $100.65 → $144.15 | +43.2% |
| KVUE Kenvue Inc. | $15.33 → $21.87 | +42.7% |
| HOOD Robinhood Markets Inc | $52.29 → $71.86 | +37.4% |
| NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | $174.65 → $238.31 | +36.5% |
| AEE Ameren Corp | $70.21 → $95.53 | +36.1% |
Largest model estimate decreases
| Company | Model fair value start → end | Change |
|---|
| APH Amphenol Corporation | $120.16 → $55.00 | -54.2% |
| WDC Western Digital Corporation | $368.86 → $233.89 | -36.6% |
| VG Venture Global, Inc. | $20.52 → $13.58 | -33.8% |
| HEI Heico Corporation | $345.42 → $228.98 | -33.7% |
| GOOG Alphabet Inc Class C | $307.61 → $209.22 | -32.0% |
| VMRK Vivmark Residential | $78.18 → $53.15 | -32.0% |
| HEI-A HEICO Corporation | $244.42 → $169.56 | -30.6% |
| STX Seagate Technology PLC | $607.42 → $424.84 | -30.1% |
| ZM Zoom Video Communications Inc | $110.55 → $78.39 | -29.1% |
| BX Blackstone Group Inc | $88.21 → $67.09 | -23.9% |
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