What Growth Do Today's Stock Prices Assume?
Instead of asking what a company is worth, this page asks what its share price already expects. For each of the largest companies we cover, it works backwards from today's market value to the yearly growth in free cash flow over the next ten years that would justify it. Data as of 2026-10-29. Across the 100 largest companies listed here, today's prices assume free cash flow grows a median 10.1% a year for ten years. 29 assume more than 20% a year; 34 assume less than 5%.
How it is worked out
- Start from the last twelve months of free cash flow and the current market value.
- Discount future cash flow at the 10-year Treasury yield plus a market risk premium scaled by the stock's beta (beta capped at 1.5).
- After year ten, assume cash flow grows 2.5% a year forever.
- Search for the yearly growth rate over years one to ten that makes that value equal today's market value.
This is arithmetic under those assumptions, not a forecast. A higher rate means the price needs faster growth to hold up; a lower one means it needs little. Banks, insurers and REITs are left out, as are companies with negative free cash flow or a rate outside -20% to 80%. Reverse DCF calculator
| Company | Market value | Price assumes, per year | FCF growth, last 3 yrs | Revenue growth, last year | FCF yield | Model gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA NVIDIA Corporation | $5.26T | 24.2% | 193.9% | 105.9% | 1.84% | -24.7% |
| AAPL Apple Inc. | $5.07T | 19.3% | -4.0% | 16.4% | 1.95% | -26.2% |
| MSFT Microsoft Corporation | $3.95T | 21.5% | 4.0% | 17.7% | 1.70% | -17.3% |
| GOOGL Alphabet Inc Class A | $3.92T | 21.3% | 6.9% | 24.2% | 1.87% | -35.7% |
| AMZN Amazon.com Inc | $2.73T | 51.9% | — | 19.6% | 0.28% | +14.2% |
| AVGO Broadcom Inc | $1.68T | 26.0% | 18.2% | 85.5% | 1.60% | -21.8% |
| TSLA Tesla Inc | $1.61T | 47.4% | -6.3% | -0.2% | 0.39% | -81.2% |
| META Meta Platforms Inc. | $1.59T | 15.0% | 34.3% | 26.1% | 2.91% | -31.4% |
| LLY Eli Lilly and Company | $1.14T | 24.0% | 24.9% | 47.7% | 0.78% | -48.5% |
| MU Micron Technology Inc | $1.05T | 8.5% | -18.8% | 379.3% | 5.61% | -20.1% |
| WMT Walmart Inc. | $946.7B | 16.6% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 1.58% | -32.4% |
| AMD Advanced Micro Devices Inc | $914.6B | 37.6% | 29.1% | 50.1% | 0.73% | -65.2% |
| V Visa Inc. Class A | $754.4B | 10.9% | 3.9% | 14.4% | 2.92% | -22.7% |
| XOM Exxon Mobil Corp | $739.8B | 2.9% | -26.1% | 44.1% | 3.19% | -20.3% |
| JNJ Johnson & Johnson | $646.9B | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 3.04% | -11.5% |
| MA Mastercard Inc | $534.2B | 10.1% | 17.6% | 14.1% | 3.08% | -24.7% |
| ABBV AbbVie Inc | $506.1B | 2.1% | -9.8% | 10.2% | 3.34% | -18.3% |
| PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. | $477.6B | 45.4% | 125.3% | 92.8% | 0.44% | -75.1% |
| CVX Chevron Corp | $447.7B | 5.2% | -23.9% | 53.5% | 3.71% | -0.8% |
| COST Costco Wholesale Corp | $439.6B | 16.1% | 11.7% | 11.1% | 2.14% | -36.6% |
| CSCO Cisco Systems Inc | $439.1B | 13.1% | -12.5% | 17.6% | 2.91% | +10.7% |
| KO The Coca-Cola Company | $392.3B | 15.1% | -17.8% | 6.7% | 1.35% | -17.6% |
| UNH UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | $368.4B | 4.2% | -11.8% | -0.4% | 4.36% | -30.2% |
| PG Procter & Gamble Company | $366.8B | 2.1% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.13% | -13.0% |
| MRK Merck & Company Inc | $349.9B | 2.0% | -5.6% | 5.1% | 3.53% | -7.3% |
| PANW Palo Alto Networks Inc | $328.6B | 24.1% | 16.1% | 34.5% | 1.25% | -50.3% |
| CAT Caterpillar Inc | $327.9B | 21.3% | 13.0% | 24.0% | 1.30% | -24.0% |
| DELL Dell Technologies Inc | $319.2B | 18.6% | 147.8% | 57.7% | 1.92% | -20.7% |
| HD The Home Depot Inc | $317.8B | 9.2% | 3.2% | 5.7% | 3.98% | -25.6% |
| PM Philip Morris International Inc | $315.8B | 4.5% | 3.1% | 5.5% | 3.65% | -49.5% |
| AMAT Applied Materials Inc | $314.2B | 24.5% | 7.3% | 24.8% | 1.81% | -18.7% |
| GE GE Aerospace | $308.8B | 19.7% | 15.3% | 15.9% | 2.35% | -27.3% |
| LRCX Lam Research Corp | $301.4B | 26.1% | 1.5% | 54.4% | 1.62% | -7.0% |
| NVS Novartis AG ADR | $298.1B | -0.7% | 15.2% | 4.7% | 5.93% | +7.1% |
| SHEL Shell PLC ADR | $297.6B | 0.2% | -19.5% | 44.7% | 8.04% | +47.1% |
| TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated | $282.4B | 32.7% | -24.0% | 27.7% | 0.92% | -52.0% |
| CRWD Crowdstrike Holdings Inc | $274.4B | 40.9% | 24.8% | 25.8% | 0.48% | -70.8% |
| AZN AstraZeneca PLC | $263.8B | 3.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 3.29% | +6.6% |
| RTX RTX Corporation | $262.6B | 5.9% | 19.2% | 11.1% | 2.84% | -2.9% |
| NFLX Netflix Inc | $260.3B | 14.6% | 80.1% | 11.8% | 3.63% | +7.6% |
| TMO Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc | $256.2B | 14.4% | -3.1% | 9.1% | 2.46% | -24.1% |
| AMGN Amgen Inc | $242.2B | 5.2% | -2.7% | 9.5% | 3.34% | -1.6% |
| ARM Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares | $242.0B | 47.1% | 14.9% | 22.4% | 0.40% | -82.8% |
| GEV GE Vernova LLC | $238.4B | 21.4% | — | 21.9% | 1.56% | -64.4% |
| IBM International Business Machines | $236.5B | 3.3% | 12.2% | 4.7% | 5.12% | -44.9% |
| ANET Arista Networks | $235.8B | 24.8% | 111.7% | 37.7% | 1.80% | -55.3% |
| LIN Linde plc Ordinary Shares | $234.5B | 14.2% | -3.7% | 9.3% | 2.17% | -34.6% |
| MRVL Marvell Technology Group Ltd | $218.9B | 39.9% | 9.2% | 36.5% | 0.64% | -55.7% |
| SHOP Shopify Inc | $215.2B | 34.3% | — | 33.7% | 0.93% | -70.0% |
| BHP BHP Group Limited | $209.9B | 3.6% | -0.1% | 18.3% | 5.68% | +1.1% |
| ADI Analog Devices Inc | $206.1B | 20.2% | 4.2% | 39.6% | 2.08% | -34.6% |
| TTE TotalEnergies SE ADR | $203.6B | 7.6% | -32.7% | 27.8% | 5.31% | +22.0% |
| KLAC KLA Corporation | $200.5B | 23.6% | 4.2% | 15.2% | 1.88% | -36.9% |
| CRM Salesforce.com Inc | $198.3B | 3.1% | 31.6% | 10.8% | 7.26% | +32.6% |
| GILD Gilead Sciences Inc | $197.3B | -0.1% | 4.3% | 10.2% | 4.79% | -8.2% |
| QCOM Qualcomm Incorporated | $195.4B | 6.4% | 23.3% | -4.0% | 6.56% | +13.5% |
| APH Amphenol Corporation | $192.9B | 19.0% | 34.7% | 55.0% | 2.27% | -42.3% |
| DIS Walt Disney Company | $190.3B | 8.8% | 111.4% | 6.8% | 5.29% | +21.5% |
| SNDK Sandisk Corp | $188.6B | 3.9% | — | 371.6% | 3.80% | +0.3% |
| VZ Verizon Communications Inc | $182.1B | -11.0% | 23.7% | 1.5% | 10.81% | +18.7% |
| PEP PepsiCo Inc | $181.9B | 1.8% | 11.0% | 5.6% | 4.22% | +30.1% |
| ABT Abbott Laboratories | $178.4B | 4.5% | -1.8% | 14.5% | 4.15% | -22.3% |
| UNP Union Pacific Corporation | $178.2B | 12.2% | -1.4% | 15.3% | 3.09% | -24.1% |
| COP ConocoPhillips | $177.7B | 0.8% | -26.4% | 35.5% | 4.07% | -7.8% |
| MCD McDonald’s Corporation | $177.3B | 3.2% | 9.4% | 3.7% | 3.53% | -9.0% |
| NEE Nextera Energy Inc | $172.9B | 15.4% | — | 1.6% | 1.86% | -33.0% |
| DE Deere & Company | $172.4B | 18.0% | 52.5% | 4.9% | 1.87% | -22.2% |
| PFE Pfizer Inc | $169.9B | -2.2% | -29.6% | 2.6% | 5.34% | +4.6% |
| SCCO Southern Copper Corporation | $164.2B | 20.2% | 22.7% | 39.1% | 2.09% | -45.9% |
| DHR Danaher Corporation | $163.1B | 10.1% | -10.6% | 8.3% | 3.23% | -11.1% |
| BUD Anheuser Busch Inbev NV ADR | $160.2B | 0.5% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 7.03% | +6.6% |
| NOW ServiceNow Inc | $160.0B | 13.5% | 28.2% | 24.0% | 2.86% | -17.1% |
| ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc | $157.5B | 26.2% | 37.5% | 21.7% | 1.58% | -35.4% |
| TMUS T-Mobile US Inc | $157.5B | -10.9% | — | 7.9% | 11.43% | -10.8% |
| TJX The TJX Companies Inc | $154.2B | 7.6% | 23.2% | 5.4% | 3.19% | -11.0% |
| STX Seagate Technology PLC | $151.9B | 22.9% | 70.5% | 48.5% | 2.04% | -43.2% |
| ETN Eaton Corporation PLC | $149.2B | 17.4% | 22.4% | 21.4% | 2.38% | -17.1% |
| ACN Accenture plc | $148.9B | 1.1% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 7.80% | -32.9% |
| LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | $145.5B | -3.1% | 4.0% | 11.3% | 4.75% | -8.5% |
| WDC Western Digital Corporation | $142.6B | 20.2% | 18.4% | 55.5% | 2.46% | -49.7% |
| T AT&T Inc. | $141.1B | -12.1% | 16.2% | 5.3% | 13.78% | +35.9% |
| RIO Rio Tinto ADR | $139.4B | 8.3% | -19.9% | 15.5% | 3.46% | +15.3% |
| FTNT Fortinet Inc | $135.7B | 21.8% | 15.4% | 25.6% | 1.64% | -19.8% |
| UBER Uber Technologies Inc | $134.4B | 3.2% | 192.5% | 12.2% | 7.27% | -14.2% |
| SPGI S&P Global Inc | $132.3B | 9.6% | 29.5% | -5.4% | 4.12% | -14.6% |
| VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc | $132.1B | 7.6% | -6.6% | 12.5% | 2.42% | -12.5% |
| MPC Marathon Petroleum Corp | $127.3B | 5.6% | -30.1% | 53.7% | 3.75% | -4.9% |
| BP BP PLC ADR | $126.0B | -1.4% | -26.9% | 48.2% | 8.94% | +22.7% |
| BMY Bristol-Myers Squibb Company | $125.7B | -10.9% | 2.4% | 5.7% | 10.22% | +59.4% |
| MO Altria Group | $122.7B | -3.9% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 5.88% | -17.3% |
| MDT Medtronic PLC | $120.2B | 3.3% | 5.8% | 13.7% | 4.52% | +34.7% |
| SNOW Snowflake Inc. | $119.0B | 32.6% | 31.2% | 35.1% | 0.94% | -81.0% |
| NEM Newmont Goldcorp Corp | $118.4B | -0.8% | 88.5% | 15.2% | 6.17% | +1.3% |
| SBUX Starbucks Corporation | $117.5B | 17.7% | -1.5% | -1.4% | 2.61% | -48.0% |
| NET Cloudflare Inc | $116.7B | 56.8% | — | 35.9% | 0.22% | -78.9% |
| CVS CVS Health Corp | $116.6B | -1.3% | -16.6% | 7.1% | 6.70% | -3.7% |
| SYK Stryker Corporation | $115.6B | 8.1% | 28.1% | 9.4% | 3.70% | -2.4% |
| PH Parker-Hannifin Corporation | $113.6B | 12.3% | 14.5% | 9.8% | 3.44% | -9.5% |
| ADP Automatic Data Processing Inc | $113.1B | 5.8% | 13.0% | 6.8% | 4.64% | -4.0% |
| MCK McKesson Corporation | $112.7B | -0.5% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 6.07% | -31.8% |