Is Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, HIG trades 14% below its fair value. Hartford Financial Services Group (HIG) last closed at $133.99; the multi-method model fair value is $156.58.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $133.99 | $156.58 | 14% below |
What the answer rests on
- 6 of 12 valuation methods put HIG's value above its price and 6 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, HIG's free cash flow would need to grow about -13.3% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 14.5% a year.
- HIG trades at 9.2 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 13.1 for 75 profitable Insurance companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 100% of trading days. The gap ranged from 27% below to 7% below the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind HIG's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies