Copper Price Analysis
Copper: $6.641 per lb. One month +1.1%, one year +29.2%. Against its inflation-adjusted average since 2000: +65.4%; higher than 99% of month-ends in today's dollars.
Analysis
Copper closed at $6.51 per pound on October 23, 2026. That is about 84% of the way up its one-year range ($4.93 to $6.80) and near the top of its five- and ten-year ranges. The price is down 2.6% over the past month, up 28% over one year, and up 196% over ten years. After adjusting for inflation, it sits about 4% below its 2011 peak and roughly 62% above its average since 2000.
The futures curve is flat, so near and later contracts cost about the same. Copper's ratio to gold is 1.62, below its 10-year average of 1.93. Over the last 120 months, prices tended to fall when 10-year real interest rates rose (correlation -0.20, a modest link) and to rise when 10-year inflation expectations rose (correlation +0.38, a clear link). Demand comes mainly from construction, power grids and electric vehicles, and China uses about half of the world's refined copper. New mines in Chile, Peru, Congo and China take a decade or more to build, and scrap recycling adds supply.
Fifteen stocks are linked to copper, and nine of them have model fair values. Seven of those nine trade below their model fair values, with a median gap of 9.9% below. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO) trade about 36% and 45% above their model fair values, while Rio Tinto (RIO) is about 10% below and BHP is about 1% below. Correlations with copper run from +0.50 to +0.55 across the most-linked names, including Taseko Mines (TGB) and Ivanhoe Electric (IE), which have no model fair value.
Where the price sits
| Period | Low | Average | High | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | $4.930 | $6.050 | $6.800 | 91% |
| 5 years | $3.210 | $4.550 | $6.800 | 96% |
| 10 years | $2.120 | $3.800 | $6.800 | 97% |
| Since 2000 | $0.600 | $2.950 | $6.800 | 97% |
Futures curve: contango
Later-month futures cost more than the near month. That usually means supply is ample now and storage costs are priced in; rolling futures forward costs the holder the gap. As of 2026-10-28.
Ratios
- Copper / Gold is 1.64 copper $/lb per gold $/oz, ×1000, near the bottom of its range since 2000 (higher than 12% of month-ends; average 2.54).
What moves copper
Demand: Construction wiring and plumbing; Power grids and electrical equipment; Electric vehicles and renewable power (several times the copper of the older equivalents); China uses about half of the world's refined copper.
Supply: Mines in Chile, Peru, Congo and China; new mines take a decade or more to build; Scrap recycling.
Worth watching: Chinese property and grid spending; Mine disruptions and ore grades; Exchange inventories.
Over the last 120 months, prices have tended to fall in months when the 10-year real interest rate rose — a modest link (correlation -0.20).
Over the last 120 months, prices have tended to rise in months when the 10-year inflation expectations rose — a clear link (correlation +0.38).
Stocks that move with copper
| Company | Correlation | Price | Model fair value | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCX Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc | 0.55 | $66.60 | $41.94 | -37.0% |
| RIO Rio Tinto ADR | 0.54 | $85.93 | $96.01 | +11.7% |
| SCCO Southern Copper Corporation | 0.53 | $193.91 | $103.70 | -46.5% |
| TGB Taseko Mines Ltd | 0.52 | $8.08 | Not published | — |
| BHP BHP Group Limited | 0.51 | $82.22 | $82.75 | +0.6% |
| IE Ivanhoe Electric Inc. | 0.50 | $8.83 | Not published | — |
| HBM Hudbay Minerals Inc. | 0.48 | $23.60 | $23.43 | -0.7% |
| TECK Teck Resources Ltd Class B | 0.45 | $63.04 | Not published | — |
| ERO Ero Copper Corp | 0.41 | $32.19 | $38.92 | +20.9% |
| SKE Skeena Resources Ltd | 0.41 | $29.65 | Not published | — |
| VALE Vale SA ADR | 0.41 | $11.47 | Not published | — |
| IPX IperionX Limited American Depositary Share | 0.40 | $15.59 | Not published | — |
Questions and answers
Is copper expensive compared with its history?
Copper at $6.64 per lb is 65% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2000 and sits 96% of the way from its 10-year low to its 10-year high. Data as of 2026-10-28. Historical comparison only, not a forecast or investment advice.
How does today's copper price compare after inflation?
In today's dollars, copper is 65.4% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2000, higher than 99% of month-ends since then. Data as of 2026-10-28.
Where is copper within its 10-year range?
At $6.641, copper sits at 97% of its 10-year range (low $2.120, high $6.800), where 0% is the low and 100% the high. Data as of 2026-10-28.
Which stocks move with copper?
Over the last 104 weeks, the covered stocks whose weekly returns moved most closely with copper include FCX (correlation 0.55), RIO (correlation 0.54), SCCO (correlation 0.53). Correlation describes past co-movement only.
What does the copper futures curve show?
contango: Later-month futures cost more than the near month. That usually means supply is ample now and storage costs are priced in; rolling futures forward costs the holder the gap. As of 2026-10-28.