US Steel (HRC) Price Analysis
US Steel (HRC): $1,392 per short ton. One month +12.7%, one year +71.0%. Against its inflation-adjusted average since 2008: +43.2%; higher than 94% of month-ends in today's dollars.
Analysis
US Steel hot-rolled coil (HRC) closed at $1,368 per short ton on October 23, 2026, at the top of its one-year range of $813 to $1,368. Over five years, its range runs from $650 to $1,813, and the price sits about 62% of the way up it. Over ten years, from $447 to $1,945, the position is also about 62%. Adjusted for inflation, the price is about 41% above its long-run average of roughly $972, and about 43% below its inflation-adjusted high of about $2,399 in August 2021.
Demand comes mainly from construction, autos and appliances, and machinery and energy infrastructure. Supply comes from U.S. mills using blast furnaces or scrap-fed electric-arc furnaces, plus imports, which tariffs limit. Over the past 120 months, the 10-year real interest rate has had little link to monthly price moves (correlation of -0.05), while 10-year inflation expectations have shown a modest link (correlation of +0.23). Tariffs, mill outages, and scrap and iron-ore costs are the factors to watch.
Over other periods, the price rose 10.6% in one month, 18.3% in three months, 68.3% over one year and 178% over ten years, while the five-year change is down 24.1%. Volatility is measured at 13.8%. October has historically averaged a 0.9% gain, with a median of -0.8%, and rose in 7 of 17 years.
Where the price sits
| Period | Low | Average | High | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | $845.00 | $1,071 | $1,392 | 100% |
| 5 years | $650.00 | $948.48 | $1,813 | 64% |
| 10 years | $447.00 | $886.06 | $1,945 | 63% |
| Since 2008 | $364.00 | $755.80 | $1,945 | 65% |
What moves us steel (hrc)
Demand: Construction; Autos and appliances; Machinery and energy infrastructure.
Supply: U.S. mills: blast furnaces using iron ore and coking coal, and electric-arc furnaces using scrap; Imports, limited by tariffs.
Worth watching: Tariffs and import volumes; Mill outages and capacity additions; Scrap and iron-ore costs.
Monthly moves have had little link to changes in the 10-year real interest rate (correlation -0.05).
Over the last 120 months, prices have tended to rise in months when the 10-year inflation expectations rose — a modest link (correlation +0.23).
Stocks that move with us steel (hrc)
No covered stock has moved closely with this market over the last two years.
Questions and answers
Is us steel (hrc) expensive compared with its history?
US Steel (HRC) at $1,392 per short ton is 43% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2008 and sits 63% of the way from its 10-year low to its 10-year high. Data as of 2026-10-28. Historical comparison only, not a forecast or investment advice.
How does today's us steel (hrc) price compare after inflation?
In today's dollars, us steel (hrc) is 43.2% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2008, higher than 94% of month-ends since then. Data as of 2026-10-28.
Where is us steel (hrc) within its 10-year range?
At $1,392, us steel (hrc) sits at 63% of its 10-year range (low $447.00, high $1,945), where 0% is the low and 100% the high. Data as of 2026-10-28.