Is Welltower Inc (WELL) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, WELL trades 93% above its fair value. Welltower Inc (WELL) last closed at $245.01; the multi-method model fair value is $127.02.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $245.01 | $127.02 | 93% above |
What the answer rests on
- 1 of 9 valuation methods put WELL's value above its price and 8 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, WELL's free cash flow would need to grow about 19.2% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 29.9% a year.
- WELL trades at 105.1 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 26.8 for 107 profitable Real Estate companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 48% above to 119% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind WELL's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies