Is VICI Properties Inc (VICI) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, VICI trades 25% below its fair value. VICI Properties Inc (VICI) last closed at $24.79; the multi-method model fair value is $33.24.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $24.79 | $33.24 | 25% below |
What the answer rests on
- 8 of 11 valuation methods put VICI's value above its price and 3 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, VICI's free cash flow would need to grow about -4.6% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 8.9% a year.
- VICI trades at 11.7 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 26.8 for 107 profitable Real Estate companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 100% of trading days. The gap ranged from 46% below to 14% below the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind VICI's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies