Is UBS Group AG (UBS) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, UBS trades 26% above its fair value. UBS Group AG (UBS) last closed at $47.78; the multi-method model fair value is $37.92.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $47.78 | $37.92 | 26% above |
What the answer rests on
- 2 of 11 valuation methods put UBS's value above its price and 9 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, UBS's free cash flow would need to grow about -3.3% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 5.9% a year.
- UBS trades at 16.7 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 12.2 for 253 profitable Banks companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 11% above to 51% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind UBS's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies