Is Tenaris SA ADR (TS) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, TS trades close to its fair value (9% above it). Tenaris SA ADR (TS) last closed at $58.85; the multi-method model fair value is $53.84.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $58.85 | $53.84 | 9% above |
What the answer rests on
- 4 of 12 valuation methods put TS's value above its price and 8 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, TS's free cash flow would need to grow about -1.2% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 37.1% a year.
- TS trades at 14.9 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 14.8 for 110 profitable Energy companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 3% of trading days. The gap ranged from 4% below to 32% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind TS's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies