Is Seagate Technology PLC (STX) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, STX trades 36% above its fair value. Seagate Technology PLC (STX) last closed at $460.99; the multi-method model fair value is $339.47.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $460.99 | $339.47 | 36% above |
What the answer rests on
- 2 of 10 valuation methods put STX's value above its price and 8 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, STX's free cash flow would need to grow about 20.3% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 70.5% a year.
- STX trades at 29.2 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 25.8 for 34 profitable Hardware companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 12% above to 520% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind STX's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies