Is Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, OXY trades close to its fair value (7% below it). Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) last closed at $56.38; the multi-method model fair value is $60.75.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $56.38 | $60.75 | 7% below |
What the answer rests on
- 5 of 13 valuation methods put OXY's value above its price and 8 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, OXY's free cash flow would need to grow about -7.2% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew -30.9% a year.
- OXY trades at 17.2 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 10.8 for 14 profitable energy_ep companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 30% of trading days. The gap ranged from 7% below to 15% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind OXY's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies