Is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, NVDA trades 11% above its fair value. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) last closed at $186.64; the multi-method model fair value is $168.07.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $186.64 | $168.07 | 11% above |
What the answer rests on
- 3 of 10 valuation methods put NVDA's value above its price and 7 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, NVDA's free cash flow would need to grow about 22.8% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 193.9% a year.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 24% of trading days. The gap ranged from 11% below to 94% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind NVDA's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies