Is Natera Inc (NTRA) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, NTRA trades 442% above its fair value. Natera Inc (NTRA) last closed at $310.67; the multi-method model fair value is $57.34.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $310.67 | $57.34 | 442% above |
What the answer rests on
- 0 of 2 valuation methods put NTRA's value above its price and 2 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, NTRA's free cash flow would need to grow about 59.4% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow).
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 12% above to 780% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind NTRA's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies