Is Nutrien Ltd (NTR) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, NTR trades 23% below its fair value. Nutrien Ltd (NTR) last closed at $71.48; the multi-method model fair value is $93.19.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $71.48 | $93.19 | 23% below |
What the answer rests on
- 6 of 13 valuation methods put NTR's value above its price and 7 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, NTR's free cash flow would need to grow about 5.6% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew -28.9% a year.
- NTR trades at 14.6 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 20.8 for 43 profitable Materials companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 100% of trading days. The gap ranged from 37% below to 17% below the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind NTR's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies