Is Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, MDLZ trades 37% above its fair value. Mondelez International Inc (MDLZ) last closed at $66.02; the multi-method model fair value is $48.18.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $66.02 | $48.18 | 37% above |
What the answer rests on
- 1 of 12 valuation methods put MDLZ's value above its price and 11 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, MDLZ's free cash flow would need to grow about 2.9% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 2.5% a year.
- MDLZ trades at 21.3 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 17.8 for 47 profitable Consumer Staples companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 25% of trading days. The gap ranged from 14% below to 90% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind MDLZ's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies