Is Marriott International Inc (MAR) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, MAR trades 76% above its fair value. Marriott International Inc (MAR) last closed at $416.47; the multi-method model fair value is $236.42.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $416.47 | $236.42 | 76% above |
What the answer rests on
- 0 of 8 valuation methods put MAR's value above its price and 8 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, MAR's free cash flow would need to grow about 17.3% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 8.7% a year.
- MAR trades at 42.4 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 37.4 for 7 profitable Hospitality companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 17% above to 96% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind MAR's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies