Is Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, GOOGL trades 56% above its fair value. Alphabet Inc Class A (GOOGL) last closed at $284.78; the multi-method model fair value is $182.96.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $284.78 | $182.96 | 56% above |
What the answer rests on
- 0 of 8 valuation methods put GOOGL's value above its price and 8 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, GOOGL's free cash flow would need to grow about 19.9% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 6.9% a year.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 3% above to 93% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind GOOGL's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies