Is Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, FIX trades 14% above its fair value. Comfort Systems USA Inc (FIX) last closed at $1,017.50; the multi-method model fair value is $896.38.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $1017.50 | $896.38 | 14% above |
What the answer rests on
- 2 of 9 valuation methods put FIX's value above its price and 7 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, FIX's free cash flow would need to grow about 19.2% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 59.7% a year.
- FIX trades at 23.6 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 24.9 for 187 profitable Industrials companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 4% above to 85% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind FIX's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies