Is Ferguson Plc (FERG) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, FERG trades close to its fair value (4% above it). Ferguson Plc (FERG) last closed at $233.70; the multi-method model fair value is $224.78.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $233.70 | $224.78 | 4% above |
What the answer rests on
- 3 of 10 valuation methods put FERG's value above its price and 7 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, FERG's free cash flow would need to grow about 29.3% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew -40.5% a year.
- FERG trades at 23.8 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 24.9 for 187 profitable Industrials companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 8% of trading days. The gap ranged from 3% below to 18% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind FERG's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies