Is EMCOR Group Inc (EME) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, EME trades 15% below its fair value. EMCOR Group Inc (EME) last closed at $608.45; the multi-method model fair value is $716.89.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $608.45 | $716.89 | 15% below |
What the answer rests on
- 5 of 11 valuation methods put EME's value above its price and 6 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, EME's free cash flow would need to grow about 10.2% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 38.4% a year.
- EME trades at 18.5 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 24.9 for 187 profitable Industrials companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 48% of trading days. The gap ranged from 17% below to 24% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind EME's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies