Is Chevron Corp (CVX) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, CVX trades close to its fair value (4% above it). Chevron Corp (CVX) last closed at $212.61; the multi-method model fair value is $205.27.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $212.61 | $205.27 | 4% above |
What the answer rests on
- 6 of 13 valuation methods put CVX's value above its price and 7 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, CVX's free cash flow would need to grow about 3.4% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew -23.9% a year.
- CVX trades at 15.9 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 14.8 for 110 profitable Energy companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 62% of trading days. The gap ranged from 18% below to 52% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind CVX's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies