Is CSX Corporation (CSX) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, CSX trades 46% above its fair value. CSX Corporation (CSX) last closed at $49.12; the multi-method model fair value is $33.75.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $49.12 | $33.75 | 46% above |
What the answer rests on
- 1 of 10 valuation methods put CSX's value above its price and 9 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, CSX's free cash flow would need to grow about 21.0% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew -21.1% a year.
- CSX trades at 27.1 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 28.6 for 7 profitable Transportation companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 21% above to 64% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind CSX's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies