Is Ciena Corp (CIEN) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, CIEN trades 32% above its fair value. Ciena Corp (CIEN) last closed at $243.39; the multi-method model fair value is $184.47.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $243.39 | $184.47 | 32% above |
What the answer rests on
- 1 of 8 valuation methods put CIEN's value above its price and 7 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, CIEN's free cash flow would need to grow about 24.1% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow).
- CIEN trades at 60.9 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 34.2 for 18 profitable Technology companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 3% above to 205% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind CIEN's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies