Is Carnival Corporation (CCL) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, CCL trades close to its fair value (9% above it). Carnival Corporation (CCL) last closed at $29.58; the multi-method model fair value is $27.22.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $29.58 | $27.22 | 9% above |
What the answer rests on
- 4 of 12 valuation methods put CCL's value above its price and 8 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, CCL's free cash flow would need to grow about 7.3% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow).
- CCL trades at 13.8 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 19.4 for 72 profitable Consumer Discretionary companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 95% of trading days. The gap ranged from 31% below to 9% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind CCL's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies