Is Blackstone Group Inc (BX) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, BX trades 74% above its fair value. Blackstone Group Inc (BX) last closed at $119.50; the multi-method model fair value is $68.54.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $119.50 | $68.54 | 74% above |
What the answer rests on
- 0 of 8 valuation methods put BX's value above its price and 8 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, BX's free cash flow would need to grow about 30.9% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew -34.1% a year.
- BX trades at 28.0 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 13.3 for 97 profitable Asset Management companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 37% above to 84% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind BX's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies