Is Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, AXON trades 80% above its fair value. Axon Enterprise Inc. (AXON) last closed at $313.00; the multi-method model fair value is $174.16.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $313.00 | $174.16 | 80% above |
What the answer rests on
- 0 of 6 valuation methods put AXON's value above its price and 6 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, AXON's free cash flow would need to grow about 56.9% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew -25.2% a year.
- AXON trades at 176.0 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 31.4 for 37 profitable Aerospace & Defense companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 19% above to 300% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind AXON's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies