Is Applovin Corp (APP) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, APP trades 78% above its fair value. Applovin Corp (APP) last closed at $391.22; the multi-method model fair value is $219.68.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $391.22 | $219.68 | 78% above |
What the answer rests on
- 1 of 10 valuation methods put APP's value above its price and 9 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, APP's free cash flow would need to grow about 12.2% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 112.3% a year.
- APP trades at 18.3 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 34.7 for 5 profitable Advertising companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 37% above to 246% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind APP's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies