Is Apollo Global Management LLC Class A (APO) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, APO trades 55% above its fair value. Apollo Global Management LLC Class A (APO) last closed at $116.75; the multi-method model fair value is $75.44.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $116.75 | $75.44 | 55% above |
What the answer rests on
- 2 of 6 valuation methods put APO's value above its price and 4 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, APO's free cash flow would need to grow about 0.0% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 27.6% a year.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 24% of trading days. The gap ranged from 9% below to 64% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind APO's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies