Is Amphenol Corporation (APH) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, APH trades 73% above its fair value. Amphenol Corporation (APH) last closed at $74.59; the multi-method model fair value is $43.14.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $74.59 | $43.14 | 73% above |
What the answer rests on
- 2 of 9 valuation methods put APH's value above its price and 7 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, APH's free cash flow would need to grow about 19.4% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 34.7% a year.
- APH trades at 36.6 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 25.8 for 34 profitable Hardware companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 1% of trading days. The gap ranged from 30% below to 114% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind APH's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies