Is Aon PLC (AON) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, AON trades 11% above its fair value. Aon PLC (AON) last closed at $334.81; the multi-method model fair value is $302.36.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $334.81 | $302.36 | 11% above |
What the answer rests on
- 2 of 10 valuation methods put AON's value above its price and 8 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, AON's free cash flow would need to grow about 4.1% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 2.1% a year.
- AON trades at 18.9 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 13.0 for 75 profitable Insurance companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 8% of trading days. The gap ranged from 7% below to 99% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind AON's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies