Is The Allstate Corporation (ALL) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, ALL trades 37% below its fair value. The Allstate Corporation (ALL) last closed at $254.81; the multi-method model fair value is $403.90.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $254.81 | $403.90 | 37% below |
What the answer rests on
- 9 of 11 valuation methods put ALL's value above its price and 2 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, ALL's free cash flow would need to grow about -16.1% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 28.1% a year.
- ALL trades at 5.3 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 13.1 for 75 profitable Insurance companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 100% of trading days. The gap ranged from 48% below to 28% below the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind ALL's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies