Is Autodesk Inc (ADSK) overvalued?
On Equity Rank's model estimate, ADSK trades 12% above its fair value. Autodesk Inc (ADSK) last closed at $261.72; the multi-method model fair value is $233.80.
| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
|---|---|---|
| $261.72 | $233.80 | 12% above |
What the answer rests on
- 3 of 9 valuation methods put ADSK's value above its price and 6 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, ADSK's free cash flow would need to grow about 10.5% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 6.0% a year.
- ADSK trades at 35.0 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 31.1 for 87 profitable Software companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 62% of trading days. The gap ranged from 25% below to 15% above the model fair value.
Read this before relying on it
The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; the live record shows every result, misses included.
Every valuation method behind ADSK's fair value · What prices assume · Other companies