WTI Crude Price Analysis
WTI Crude: $102.78 per barrel. One month +11.0%, one year +70.9%. Against its inflation-adjusted average since 2000: +11.0%; higher than 65% of month-ends in today's dollars.
Analysis
WTI crude closed at $103.27 per barrel on October 23, 2026. That places the price 83.2% of the way from its one-year low to its one-year high, 70.1% of the way across its five-year range, and 82.0% across its ten-year range. Against inflation-adjusted history, the price is 11.5% above the average since 2000 of $92.60 per barrel, and 52.3% below its June 2008 inflation-adjusted high of $216.50.
The futures curve is in backwardation, meaning near-month contracts cost more than later ones, a pattern that usually reflects tight supply. The roll yield is 27.7%. Over the past 120 months, 10-year inflation expectations have shown a clearer link to monthly price moves (correlation +0.45) than the 10-year real interest rate (+0.03). Gold/oil stands at 38.81 barrels per ounce against a 10-year average of 32.52, and oil/natural gas at 33.86 against 21.89. Demand comes from transport fuels, petrochemicals and emerging economies, while supply comes from U.S. shale, OPEC+ quotas and strategic reserve releases and refills.
Of the 89 stocks linked to this market, 73 have model fair values, and 29 of those trade below them. The median stock sits 3.3% above its model fair value. Equinor ADR (EQNR, correlation 0.71) is 42.6% below its model fair value, Chord Energy (CHRD, 0.70) is 19.6% below, and Occidental (OXY, 0.64) is 6.2% above.
Where the price sits
| Period | Low | Average | High | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | $55.27 | $80.90 | $112.95 | 82% |
| 5 years | $55.27 | $78.89 | $123.70 | 69% |
| 10 years | $10.01 | $67.16 | $123.70 | 82% |
| Since 2000 | $10.01 | $65.36 | $145.29 | 69% |
Futures curve: backwardation
Near-month futures cost more than later months. That usually means supply is tight now; a holder of futures who rolls forward earns the gap (positive roll yield). As of 2026-10-28.
Ratios
- Gold / Oil is 39.42 barrels of WTI per ounce of gold, near the top of its range since 2000 (higher than 91% of month-ends; average 21.05).
- Oil / Natural Gas is 36.49 MMBtu of gas per barrel of oil, near the top of its range since 2000 (higher than 97% of month-ends; average 17.53).
- Brent − WTI is $12.54 a barrel, near the top of its range since 2007 (higher than 89% of month-ends; average 5.51).
What moves wti crude
Demand: Transport fuels: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel; Petrochemicals; Global demand growth led by emerging economies.
Supply: U.S. shale wells, which can react to price within months; OPEC+ production quotas; Strategic petroleum reserve releases and refills.
Worth watching: OPEC+ decisions; U.S. crude inventories (weekly EIA report); Refinery demand and driving season; Geopolitical supply risk.
Monthly moves have had little link to changes in the 10-year real interest rate (correlation +0.03).
Over the last 120 months, prices have tended to rise in months when the 10-year inflation expectations rose — a clear link (correlation +0.45).
Stocks that move with wti crude
| Company | Correlation | Price | Model fair value | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQNR Equinor ASA ADR | 0.71 | $47.66 | $71.49 | +50.0% |
| CHRD Chord Energy Corp | 0.70 | $154.06 | $191.07 | +24.0% |
| OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | 0.64 | $62.86 | $60.51 | -3.7% |
| OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd | 0.61 | $11.79 | Not published | — |
| FANG Diamondback Energy Inc | 0.60 | $206.22 | $164.20 | -20.4% |
| SM SM Energy Co | 0.60 | $39.56 | $39.76 | +0.5% |
| VET Vermilion Energy Inc. | 0.60 | $13.64 | Not published | — |
| MTDR Matador Resources Company | 0.60 | $59.84 | $69.95 | +16.9% |
| CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Ltd | 0.60 | $54.81 | Not published | — |
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp | 0.59 | $26.59 | $25.92 | -2.5% |
| BP BP PLC ADR | 0.59 | $49.79 | $61.78 | +24.1% |
| COP ConocoPhillips | 0.58 | $149.06 | $138.40 | -7.2% |
Questions and answers
Is wti crude expensive compared with its history?
WTI Crude at $102.78 per barrel is 11% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2000 and sits 82% of the way from its 10-year low to its 10-year high. Data as of 2026-10-28. Historical comparison only, not a forecast or investment advice.
How does today's wti crude price compare after inflation?
In today's dollars, wti crude is 11.0% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2000, higher than 65% of month-ends since then. Data as of 2026-10-28.
Where is wti crude within its 10-year range?
At $102.78, wti crude sits at 82% of its 10-year range (low $10.01, high $123.70), where 0% is the low and 100% the high. Data as of 2026-10-28.
Which stocks move with wti crude?
Over the last 104 weeks, the covered stocks whose weekly returns moved most closely with wti crude include EQNR (correlation 0.71), CHRD (correlation 0.70), OXY (correlation 0.64). Correlation describes past co-movement only.
What does the wti crude futures curve show?
backwardation: Near-month futures cost more than later months. That usually means supply is tight now; a holder of futures who rolls forward earns the gap (positive roll yield). As of 2026-10-28.