Brent Crude Price Analysis
Brent Crude: $115.32 per barrel. One month +9.5%, one year +79.1%. Against its inflation-adjusted average since 2007: +8.4%; higher than 65% of month-ends in today's dollars.
Analysis
Brent crude closed at $111.70 a barrel on 23 October 2026. That is about 89% of the way from its one-year low of $58.92 to its one-year high of $118.35, and about 76% of the way across its five-year range of $58.92 to $127.98. Over ten years, the price sits about 85% of the way from $19.33 to $127.98. It is 30% above its one-year average of $85.91. Adjusted for inflation, the price is about 4.9% above its long-run average of $106.43, but roughly 48% below its inflation-adjusted peak of $216.24 in June 2008.
Brent rose 8.4% over the past month and 15.4% over three months. The Brent–WTI spread stands at $8.43 a barrel, above its all-time average of $5.51 and its 10-year average of $5.10, and higher than about 80% of readings in its full history. Over the past 120 months, prices have tended to rise in months when 10-year inflation expectations rose, a clear link with a correlation of +0.50. The link to the 10-year real interest rate has been weak, at +0.06. Demand comes from refiners in Europe, Asia and Africa and from transport fuels and petrochemicals. Supply reflects North Sea and wider seaborne flows, OPEC+ quotas and shipping chokepoints. October has averaged a 1.0% decline over 19 years, with prices rising in 10 of them.
Of the 105 stocks linked to this market, 87 have model fair values. The median stock trades 5.0% above its model fair value, and 32 of the 87 sit below it. Equinor ASA ADR (EQNR, correlation +0.75) trades 42.6% below its model fair value, Chord Energy (CHRD, +0.72) 19.6% below, and SM Energy (SM, +0.67) 2.5% below. Occidental Petroleum (OXY, +0.69) sits 6.2% above its model fair value. Obsidian Energy (OBE) and Vermilion Energy (VET), both at +0.67, have no model fair value figure. Model fair values are multi-method model estimates.
Where the price sits
| Period | Low | Average | High | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | $58.92 | $86.58 | $118.35 | 95% |
| 5 years | $58.92 | $84.39 | $127.98 | 82% |
| 10 years | $19.33 | $72.35 | $127.98 | 88% |
| Since 2007 | $19.33 | $79.09 | $146.08 | 76% |
Ratios
- Brent − WTI is $12.54 a barrel, near the top of its range since 2007 (higher than 89% of month-ends; average 5.51).
What moves brent crude
Demand: The global benchmark for seaborne crude: refiners in Europe, Asia and Africa; Transport fuels and petrochemicals.
Supply: North Sea fields plus the wider seaborne market; OPEC+ quotas; Shipping routes and chokepoints.
Worth watching: OPEC+ decisions; Middle East and Russian supply risk; The Brent–WTI spread, which reflects U.S. export capacity.
Monthly moves have had little link to changes in the 10-year real interest rate (correlation +0.06).
Over the last 120 months, prices have tended to rise in months when the 10-year inflation expectations rose — a clear link (correlation +0.50).
Stocks that move with brent crude
| Company | Correlation | Price | Model fair value | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EQNR Equinor ASA ADR | 0.75 | $47.66 | $71.49 | +50.0% |
| CHRD Chord Energy Corp | 0.72 | $154.06 | $191.07 | +24.0% |
| OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation | 0.69 | $62.86 | $60.51 | -3.7% |
| OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd | 0.67 | $11.79 | Not published | — |
| VET Vermilion Energy Inc. | 0.67 | $13.64 | Not published | — |
| SM SM Energy Co | 0.67 | $39.56 | $39.76 | +0.5% |
| FANG Diamondback Energy Inc | 0.65 | $206.22 | $164.20 | -20.4% |
| BP BP PLC ADR | 0.65 | $49.79 | $61.78 | +24.1% |
| CNQ Canadian Natural Resources Ltd | 0.64 | $54.81 | Not published | — |
| MGY Magnolia Oil & Gas Corp | 0.63 | $26.59 | $25.92 | -2.5% |
| TALO Talos Energy | 0.63 | $18.21 | $21.78 | +19.6% |
| PTEN Patterson-UTI Energy Inc | 0.63 | $12.60 | $13.19 | +4.7% |
Questions and answers
Is brent crude expensive compared with its history?
Brent Crude at $115.32 per barrel is 8% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2007 and sits 88% of the way from its 10-year low to its 10-year high. Data as of 2026-10-28. Historical comparison only, not a forecast or investment advice.
How does today's brent crude price compare after inflation?
In today's dollars, brent crude is 8.4% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2007, higher than 65% of month-ends since then. Data as of 2026-10-28.
Where is brent crude within its 10-year range?
At $115.32, brent crude sits at 88% of its 10-year range (low $19.33, high $127.98), where 0% is the low and 100% the high. Data as of 2026-10-28.
Which stocks move with brent crude?
Over the last 104 weeks, the covered stocks whose weekly returns moved most closely with brent crude include EQNR (correlation 0.75), CHRD (correlation 0.72), OXY (correlation 0.69). Correlation describes past co-movement only.