Wheat Price Analysis
Wheat: $5.995 per bushel. One month -13.0%, one year +13.3%. Against its inflation-adjusted average since 2000: -21.4%; higher than 28% of month-ends in today's dollars.
Analysis
Wheat was priced at $6.25 per bushel on October 23, 2026. Over the past month the price fell 11.8%, over three months it fell 7.8%, and over the past year it rose 21.8%. Within its one-year range ($5.06 to $7.67), the price sits at 45.5% of the way from low to high, 3.7% above the one-year average of $6.03. Over five years it sits at 14.0% of its range ($4.95 to $14.25), 4.3% below its five-year average of $6.53. Adjusted for inflation, the average price since July 2000 is $7.62, and wheat is 18.0% below that level. The inflation-adjusted high was $16.97 in February 2008, and the low was $4.63 in June 2001.
The wheat-to-corn price ratio is 1.37, compared with an average of 1.34 across all history and 1.29 over the past ten years. Monthly moves in wheat have shown little link to changes in the 10-year real interest rate (correlation +0.02) or in 10-year inflation expectations (correlation +0.05). On the supply side, Russia, the EU, Canada, the U.S. and Australia are the large exporters, and Black Sea shipping is a key route. Demand comes mainly from food, which is fairly steady from year to year, along with feed and exports.
October has historically been a mixed month for wheat, with an average gain of 0.5% and a median gain of 2.6%. Prices rose in 16 of the 26 Octobers in the record. The market has a volatility of 28.2%. Factors being tracked include harvest weather in the large exporting regions, export restrictions, and Black Sea security.
Where the price sits
| Period | Low | Average | High | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | $5.060 | $6.040 | $7.670 | 36% |
| 5 years | $4.950 | $6.530 | $14.25 | 11% |
| 10 years | $3.710 | $5.890 | $14.25 | 22% |
| Since 2000 | $2.330 | $5.380 | $14.25 | 31% |
Ratios
- Wheat / Corn is 1.33 price ratio, in the middle of its range since 2000 (higher than 50% of month-ends; average 1.34).
What moves wheat
Demand: Food (bread, pasta) — fairly steady from year to year; Feed; Exports.
Supply: Russia, the EU, Canada, the U.S. and Australia are the large exporters; Black Sea shipping.
Worth watching: Harvest weather in the large exporting regions; Export restrictions; Black Sea security.
Monthly moves have had little link to changes in the 10-year real interest rate (correlation +0.02).
Monthly moves have had little link to changes in the 10-year inflation expectations (correlation +0.05).
Stocks that move with wheat
No covered stock has moved closely with this market over the last two years.
Questions and answers
Is wheat expensive compared with its history?
Wheat at $6.00 per bushel is 21% below its inflation-adjusted average since 2000 and sits 22% of the way from its 10-year low to its 10-year high. Data as of 2026-10-28. Historical comparison only, not a forecast or investment advice.
How does today's wheat price compare after inflation?
In today's dollars, wheat is 21.4% below its inflation-adjusted average since 2000, higher than 28% of month-ends since then. Data as of 2026-10-28.
Where is wheat within its 10-year range?
At $5.995, wheat sits at 22% of its 10-year range (low $3.710, high $14.25), where 0% is the low and 100% the high. Data as of 2026-10-28.