Soybeans Price Analysis
Soybeans: $12.37 per bushel. One month -4.0%, one year +14.7%. Against its inflation-adjusted average since 2000: -13.3%; higher than 40% of month-ends in today's dollars.
Analysis
Soybeans traded at $12.70 a bushel on October 23, 2026. That places the price near the upper part of its one-year range, at about 81% of the way from the $10.23 low to the $13.28 high. Over five years it sits about 40% of the way through its range, and over ten years about 49%. Adjusted for inflation, the price is about 11% below its average since 2000 of $14.26 and about 51% below its August 2012 high.
The soybean-to-corn price ratio stands at 2.78, above its long-run average of 2.5 and higher than in about 82% of its history. Monthly moves have had little link to 10-year real interest rates (correlation of -0.11) or to 10-year inflation expectations (correlation of +0.13). October has historically been a firm month, averaging a 2.0% gain and rising in 16 of 26 years. Soybeans are crushed into meal for animal feed and oil for food and renewable diesel, and China imports most of the world's traded beans. Brazil and the U.S. grow most of the supply. Key factors include Chinese import demand, the size of Brazil's harvest, renewable-diesel policy, and the soybean-corn ratio, which steers U.S. planting.
Three equities move with soybean prices in this model: Corteva (CTVA), Mosaic (MOS) and AGCO (AGCO), with correlations of 0.37, 0.33 and 0.31. All three trade below their model fair values, by about 25% for Corteva, about 58% for Mosaic and about 7% for AGCO. Model fair values are multi-method model estimates.
Where the price sits
| Period | Low | Average | High | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | $10.23 | $11.67 | $13.28 | 70% |
| 5 years | $9.390 | $12.58 | $17.69 | 36% |
| 10 years | $7.910 | $11.38 | $17.69 | 46% |
| Since 2000 | $4.180 | $10.14 | $17.71 | 61% |
Ratios
- Soybean / Corn is 2.74 price ratio, in the upper part of its range since 2000 (higher than 79% of month-ends; average 2.50).
What moves soybeans
Demand: Crushed into soymeal (animal feed) and soy oil (food and renewable diesel); China imports the majority of the world's traded soybeans.
Supply: Brazil and the U.S. grow most of the world's soybeans; Argentina leads in meal and oil; South American harvest in the U.S. off-season.
Worth watching: Chinese import demand; Brazilian harvest size; Renewable-diesel policy; The soybean–corn price ratio, which steers U.S. planting.
Monthly moves have had little link to changes in the 10-year real interest rate (correlation -0.11).
Monthly moves have had little link to changes in the 10-year inflation expectations (correlation +0.13).
Stocks that move with soybeans
| Company | Correlation | Price | Model fair value | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTVA Corteva Inc | 0.37 | $11.33 | $13.44 | +18.6% |
| MOS The Mosaic Company | 0.33 | $18.33 | Not published | — |
| AGCO AGCO Corporation | 0.31 | $102.16 | $111.73 | +9.4% |
Questions and answers
Is soybeans expensive compared with its history?
Soybeans at $12.37 per bushel is 13% below its inflation-adjusted average since 2000 and sits 46% of the way from its 10-year low to its 10-year high. Data as of 2026-10-28. Historical comparison only, not a forecast or investment advice.
How does today's soybeans price compare after inflation?
In today's dollars, soybeans is 13.3% below its inflation-adjusted average since 2000, higher than 40% of month-ends since then. Data as of 2026-10-28.
Where is soybeans within its 10-year range?
At $12.37, soybeans sits at 46% of its 10-year range (low $7.910, high $17.69), where 0% is the low and 100% the high. Data as of 2026-10-28.
Which stocks move with soybeans?
Over the last 104 weeks, the covered stocks whose weekly returns moved most closely with soybeans include CTVA (correlation 0.37), MOS (correlation 0.33), AGCO (correlation 0.31). Correlation describes past co-movement only.