# Is Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) overvalued?

Source: https://www.equity-rank.com/is-it-overvalued/ULTA

**On Equity Rank's model estimate, ULTA trades 66% above its fair value.** Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) last closed at $644.76; the multi-method model fair value is $388.41.

| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
| --- | --- | --- |
| $644.76 | $388.41 | 66% above |

## What the answer rests on

- 0 of 9 valuation methods put ULTA's value above its price and 9 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, ULTA's free cash flow would need to grow about 8.6% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew -3.0% a year.
- ULTA trades at 23.1 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 14.7 for 36 profitable Specialty Retail companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 34% above to 96% above the model fair value.

## Read this before relying on it

The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; [the live record](https://www.equity-rank.com/track-record) shows every result, misses included.

Data as of Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Informational only — not investment advice.

[Every valuation method behind ULTA's fair value](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/ULTA) · [What prices assume](https://www.equity-rank.com/priced-in) · [Other companies](https://www.equity-rank.com/is-it-overvalued)

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Fair value is a model estimate under stated assumptions — not a price target, not a prediction, and not a recommendation. This page is research information, not investment advice. Equity Rank is not a registered investment adviser.