# Is Phillips 66 (PSX) overvalued?

Source: https://www.equity-rank.com/is-it-overvalued/PSX

**On Equity Rank's model estimate, PSX trades close to its fair value (5% below it).** Phillips 66 (PSX) last closed at $245.72; the multi-method model fair value is $258.14.

| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
| --- | --- | --- |
| $245.72 | $258.14 | 5% below |

## What the answer rests on

- 5 of 13 valuation methods put PSX's value above its price and 8 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, PSX's free cash flow would need to grow about 11.1% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew -31.8% a year.
- PSX trades at 8.3 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 14.9 for 110 profitable Energy companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 23% of trading days. The gap ranged from 8% below to 14% above the model fair value.

## Read this before relying on it

The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; [the live record](https://www.equity-rank.com/track-record) shows every result, misses included.

Data as of Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Informational only — not investment advice.

[Every valuation method behind PSX's fair value](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/PSX) · [What prices assume](https://www.equity-rank.com/priced-in) · [Other companies](https://www.equity-rank.com/is-it-overvalued)

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Fair value is a model estimate under stated assumptions — not a price target, not a prediction, and not a recommendation. This page is research information, not investment advice. Equity Rank is not a registered investment adviser.