# Is Caterpillar Inc (CAT) overvalued?

Source: https://www.equity-rank.com/is-it-overvalued/CAT

**On Equity Rank's model estimate, CAT trades close to its fair value (3% above it).** Caterpillar Inc (CAT) last closed at $558.63; the multi-method model fair value is $543.03.

| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
| --- | --- | --- |
| $558.63 | $543.03 | 3% above |

## What the answer rests on

- 2 of 8 valuation methods put CAT's value above its price and 6 put it below, so the methods mostly agree.
- To justify today's price, CAT's free cash flow would need to grow about 18.5% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 13.0% a year.
- CAT trades at 23.2 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 29.0 for 11 profitable Heavy Machinery companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 0% of trading days. The gap ranged from 2% above to 179% above the model fair value.

## Read this before relying on it

The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; [the live record](https://www.equity-rank.com/track-record) shows every result, misses included.

Data as of Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Informational only — not investment advice.

[Every valuation method behind CAT's fair value](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/CAT) · [What prices assume](https://www.equity-rank.com/priced-in) · [Other companies](https://www.equity-rank.com/is-it-overvalued)

---

Fair value is a model estimate under stated assumptions — not a price target, not a prediction, and not a recommendation. This page is research information, not investment advice. Equity Rank is not a registered investment adviser.