# Is BP PLC ADR (BP) overvalued?

Source: https://www.equity-rank.com/is-it-overvalued/BP

**On Equity Rank's model estimate, BP trades 28% below its fair value.** BP PLC ADR (BP) last closed at $44.53; the multi-method model fair value is $61.74.

| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
| --- | --- | --- |
| $44.53 | $61.74 | 28% below |

## What the answer rests on

- 8 of 11 valuation methods put BP's value above its price and 3 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, BP's free cash flow would need to grow about -2.5% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew -26.9% a year.
- BP trades at 22.2 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 14.8 for 110 profitable Energy companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 100% of trading days. The gap ranged from 51% below to 18% below the model fair value.

## Read this before relying on it

The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; [the live record](https://www.equity-rank.com/track-record) shows every result, misses included.

Data as of Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Informational only — not investment advice.

[Every valuation method behind BP's fair value](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/BP) · [What prices assume](https://www.equity-rank.com/priced-in) · [Other companies](https://www.equity-rank.com/is-it-overvalued)

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Fair value is a model estimate under stated assumptions — not a price target, not a prediction, and not a recommendation. This page is research information, not investment advice. Equity Rank is not a registered investment adviser.