# Is Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) overvalued?

Source: https://www.equity-rank.com/is-it-overvalued/ACGL

**On Equity Rank's model estimate, ACGL trades 21% below its fair value.** Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) last closed at $107.28; the multi-method model fair value is $135.23.

| Price | Model fair value | Price vs model |
| --- | --- | --- |
| $107.28 | $135.23 | 21% below |

## What the answer rests on

- 7 of 10 valuation methods put ACGL's value above its price and 3 put it below, so the methods disagree.
- To justify today's price, ACGL's free cash flow would need to grow about -16.8% a year for ten years (a reverse discounted cash flow). Over the last three years it actually grew 17.6% a year.
- ACGL trades at 9.1 times its last year's earnings, against a median of 13.1 for 75 profitable Insurance companies.
- Over the past year the price sat below the model fair value on 100% of trading days. The gap ranged from 35% below to 18% below the model fair value.

## Read this before relying on it

The model fair value is an estimate from published financial statements. It is not a forecast of where the price goes, and it can be wrong. Within 10% either side we call it close to fair value: valuation models are not precise enough to read more into a smaller gap. Our own lists have no proven edge over the market yet; [the live record](https://www.equity-rank.com/track-record) shows every result, misses included.

Data as of Fri, Nov 6, 2026. Informational only — not investment advice.

[Every valuation method behind ACGL's fair value](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/ACGL) · [What prices assume](https://www.equity-rank.com/priced-in) · [Other companies](https://www.equity-rank.com/is-it-overvalued)

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Fair value is a model estimate under stated assumptions — not a price target, not a prediction, and not a recommendation. This page is research information, not investment advice. Equity Rank is not a registered investment adviser.