# US Steel (HRC) Price Analysis

Source: https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/steel

Industrial metals · front-month futures, $/short ton · data as of 2026-10-28

US Steel (HRC): $1,392 per short ton. One month +12.7%, one year +71.0%. Against its inflation-adjusted average since 2008: +43.2%; higher than 94% of month-ends in today's dollars.

## Analysis

US Steel hot-rolled coil (HRC) closed at $1,368 per short ton on October 23, 2026, at the top of its one-year range of $813 to $1,368. Over five years, its range runs from $650 to $1,813, and the price sits about 62% of the way up it. Over ten years, from $447 to $1,945, the position is also about 62%. Adjusted for inflation, the price is about 41% above its long-run average of roughly $972, and about 43% below its inflation-adjusted high of about $2,399 in August 2021.

Demand comes mainly from construction, autos and appliances, and machinery and energy infrastructure. Supply comes from U.S. mills using blast furnaces or scrap-fed electric-arc furnaces, plus imports, which tariffs limit. Over the past 120 months, the 10-year real interest rate has had little link to monthly price moves (correlation of -0.05), while 10-year inflation expectations have shown a modest link (correlation of +0.23). Tariffs, mill outages, and scrap and iron-ore costs are the factors to watch.

Over other periods, the price rose 10.6% in one month, 18.3% in three months, 68.3% over one year and 178% over ten years, while the five-year change is down 24.1%. Volatility is measured at 13.8%. October has historically averaged a 0.9% gain, with a median of -0.8%, and rose in 7 of 17 years.

Written for the week of 2026-10-26; data as of 2026-10-23. Historical facts and model estimates, not forecasts or investment advice.

## Where the price sits

| Period | Low | Average | High | Position |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 year | $845.00 | $1,071 | $1,392 | 100% |
| 5 years | $650.00 | $948.48 | $1,813 | 64% |
| 10 years | $447.00 | $886.06 | $1,945 | 63% |
| Since 2008 | $364.00 | $755.80 | $1,945 | 65% |

Position: 0% = at the period low, 100% = at the high.

## What moves us steel (hrc)

**Demand:** Construction; Autos and appliances; Machinery and energy infrastructure.

**Supply:** U.S. mills: blast furnaces using iron ore and coking coal, and electric-arc furnaces using scrap; Imports, limited by tariffs.

**Worth watching:** Tariffs and import volumes; Mill outages and capacity additions; Scrap and iron-ore costs.

Monthly moves have had little link to changes in the 10-year real interest rate (correlation -0.05).

Over the last 120 months, prices have tended to rise in months when the 10-year inflation expectations rose — a modest link (correlation +0.23).

## Stocks that move with us steel (hrc)

No covered stock has moved closely with this market over the last two years.

## Questions and answers

### Is us steel (hrc) expensive compared with its history?

US Steel (HRC) at $1,392 per short ton is 43% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2008 and sits 63% of the way from its 10-year low to its 10-year high. Data as of 2026-10-28. Historical comparison only, not a forecast or investment advice.

### How does today's us steel (hrc) price compare after inflation?

In today's dollars, us steel (hrc) is 43.2% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2008, higher than 94% of month-ends since then. Data as of 2026-10-28.

### Where is us steel (hrc) within its 10-year range?

At $1,392, us steel (hrc) sits at 63% of its 10-year range (low $447.00, high $1,945), where 0% is the low and 100% the high. Data as of 2026-10-28.

## Related

[Copper](https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/copper) · [Aluminum](https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/aluminum) · [All commodity markets](https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis)

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Fair value is a model estimate under stated assumptions — not a price target, not a prediction, and not a recommendation. This page is research information, not investment advice. Equity Rank is not a registered investment adviser.