# Palladium Price Analysis

Source: https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/palladium

Precious metals · front-month futures, $/troy oz · data as of 2026-10-28

Palladium: $1,019 per troy oz. One month -15.8%, one year -27.4%. Against its inflation-adjusted average since 1998: -10.8%; higher than 50% of month-ends in today's dollars.

## Analysis

Palladium stood at $1,046.50 per troy ounce, at the bottom of its one-year range of $1,046.50 to $2,169.90. Over five years it sits about 10% of the way up its range ($822.80 to $2,979.90), and over ten years about 18% of the way up ($617.05 to $2,985.40). The metal is down 16.8% over the past month and 28.9% over the past year, but up 69.5% over ten years. Adjusted for inflation, the price is about 8% below its average since 1998 and roughly midway through its inflation-adjusted history.

Over the past ten years, monthly price moves have shown little link to the 10-year real interest rate (correlation -0.11) or to 10-year inflation expectations (correlation +0.04). Most palladium demand comes from gasoline-engine catalytic converters, with electronics and dentistry making up the rest. Russia and South Africa produce most of the world's supply, and recycled autocatalysts are another source. Factors tracked include gasoline car production, the shift to battery-electric cars, Russian export flows and substitution with platinum. October has historically averaged a 0.7% gain.

Of 38 stocks that move with palladium, 23 have model fair values. Among the most closely linked, Hycroft Mining (HYMC, correlation 0.59) and Sibanye Gold (SBSW, 0.58) have no model fair value figure. Pan American Silver (PAAS) trades 0.3% below its model fair value, Fortuna Silver Mines (FSM) 57.5% below, and McEwen Mining (MUX) 0.1% below. Across the 23 stocks with figures, the median gap is 4.3% below model fair value, and 17 trade below it.

Written for the week of 2026-10-26; data as of 2026-10-23. Historical facts and model estimates, not forecasts or investment advice.

## Where the price sits

| Period | Low | Average | High | Position |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 year | $1,019 | $1,451 | $2,170 | 0% |
| 5 years | $822.80 | $1,398 | $2,980 | 9% |
| 10 years | $617.05 | $1,487 | $2,985 | 17% |
| Since 1998 | $148.50 | $843.94 | $2,985 | 31% |

Position: 0% = at the period low, 100% = at the high.

## What moves palladium

**Demand:** Gasoline-engine catalytic converters, the large majority of use; Electronics and dentistry.

**Supply:** Russia and South Africa produce most of the world's palladium; Recycled autocatalysts.

**Worth watching:** Gasoline car production and the shift to battery-electric cars (which need none); Russian export flows; Substitution with platinum.

Monthly moves have had little link to changes in the 10-year real interest rate (correlation -0.11).

Monthly moves have had little link to changes in the 10-year inflation expectations (correlation +0.04).

## Stocks that move with palladium

| Company | Correlation | Price | Model fair value | Gap |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [HYMC](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/HYMC) Hycroft Mining Holding Corporation | 0.59 | $17.44 | Not published | — |
| [SBSW](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/SBSW) Sibanye Gold Ltd ADR | 0.58 | $9.41 | Not published | — |
| [PAAS](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/PAAS) Pan American Silver Corp. | 0.54 | $41.95 | $42.80 | +2.0% |
| [FSM](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/FSM) Fortuna Silver Mines Inc | 0.53 | $9.65 | $15.78 | +63.5% |
| [MUX](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/MUX) McEwen Mining Inc. | 0.53 | $15.65 | $16.33 | +4.3% |
| [SA](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/SA) Seabridge Gold Inc. | 0.52 | $26.70 | Not published | — |
| [HL](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/HL) Hecla Mining Company | 0.51 | $14.92 | $13.84 | -7.2% |
| [IDR](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/IDR) Idaho Strategic Resources Inc | 0.51 | $21.02 | $14.99 | -28.7% |
| [CGAU](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/CGAU) Centerra Gold Inc | 0.49 | $21.18 | $24.32 | +14.8% |
| [AUGO](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/AUGO) Aura Minerals Inc. Common Shares | 0.48 | $81.82 | $63.56 | -22.3% |
| [CDE](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/CDE) Coeur Mining Inc | 0.48 | $14.42 | $13.20 | -8.5% |
| [EQX](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/EQX) Equinox Gold Corp | 0.48 | $10.48 | $8.41 | -19.8% |

Correlation of weekly returns over 104 weeks. Gap = multi-method model fair value differential versus the current price; positive means the price sits below the model estimate.

## Questions and answers

### Is palladium expensive compared with its history?

Palladium at $1,019 per troy oz is 11% below its inflation-adjusted average since 1998 and sits 17% of the way from its 10-year low to its 10-year high. Data as of 2026-10-28. Historical comparison only, not a forecast or investment advice.

### How does today's palladium price compare after inflation?

In today's dollars, palladium is 10.8% below its inflation-adjusted average since 1998, higher than 50% of month-ends since then. Data as of 2026-10-28.

### Where is palladium within its 10-year range?

At $1,019, palladium sits at 17% of its 10-year range (low $617.05, high $2,985), where 0% is the low and 100% the high. Data as of 2026-10-28.

### Which stocks move with palladium?

Over the last 104 weeks, the covered stocks whose weekly returns moved most closely with palladium include HYMC (correlation 0.59), SBSW (correlation 0.58), PAAS (correlation 0.54). Correlation describes past co-movement only.

## Related

[Gold](https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/gold) · [Silver](https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/silver) · [Platinum](https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/platinum) · [All commodity markets](https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis)

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Fair value is a model estimate under stated assumptions — not a price target, not a prediction, and not a recommendation. This page is research information, not investment advice. Equity Rank is not a registered investment adviser.