# Natural Gas Price Analysis

Source: https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/natural-gas

Energy · front-month futures, $/MMBtu · data as of 2026-10-28

Natural Gas: $2.817 per MMBtu. One month -6.1%, one year -15.8%. Against its inflation-adjusted average since 2000: -57.6%; higher than 7% of month-ends in today's dollars.

## Analysis

Natural gas closed at $3.05 per MMBtu on October 23, 2026, near the low end of its recent ranges. It sits 10.7% of the way up its 1-year range ($2.52 to $7.46), 18.2% up its 5-year range, and 19.1% up its 10-year range. Compared with inflation-adjusted history, the price is 54% below its average of $6.64 since 2000 and about 87% below its inflation-adjusted high of $23.55 in September 2005.

The futures curve is in contango, meaning later-month contracts cost more than the near month. This usually reflects ample current supply and storage costs already priced in. Relative to oil, gas is cheap: the oil-to-gas ratio of 33.86 compares with a 10-year average of 21.89. Links to interest rates have been weak, with a correlation of +0.04 to the 10-year real rate and a modest +0.18 to 10-year inflation expectations over 120 months. October has averaged a 7.4% gain, with a median of 4.2%. Demand comes from power generation, heating, industry and LNG exports, while supply comes from shale basins and storage filled over the summer.

Three linked stocks have model fair value estimates. Comstock Resources (CRK, correlation 0.49) trades about 6.9% above its model fair value, Expand Energy (EXE, correlation 0.37) about 27.1% below, and EQT Corporation (EQT, correlation 0.32) about 9.7% above.

Written for the week of 2026-10-26; data as of 2026-10-23. Historical facts and model estimates, not forecasts or investment advice.

## Where the price sits

| Period | Low | Average | High | Position |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 year | $2.520 | $3.290 | $7.460 | 6% |
| 5 years | $1.570 | $3.700 | $9.680 | 15% |
| 10 years | $1.480 | $3.290 | $9.680 | 16% |
| Since 2000 | $1.480 | $4.380 | $15.38 | 10% |

Position: 0% = at the period low, 100% = at the high.

## Futures curve: contango

Later-month futures cost more than the near month. That usually means supply is ample now and storage costs are priced in; rolling futures forward costs the holder the gap. As of 2026-10-28.

## Ratios

- Oil / Natural Gas is 36.49 MMBtu of gas per barrel of oil, near the top of its range since 2000 (higher than 97% of month-ends; average 17.53).

## What moves natural gas

**Demand:** Power generation; Home and commercial heating (winter peaks); Industry and fertilizer; Liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports.

**Supply:** U.S. shale basins, with gas also produced alongside oil; Underground storage that fills in summer and draws down in winter.

**Worth watching:** Weather; Weekly storage versus the five-year average (EIA report); New LNG export capacity.

Monthly moves have had little link to changes in the 10-year real interest rate (correlation +0.04).

Over the last 120 months, prices have tended to rise in months when the 10-year inflation expectations rose — a modest link (correlation +0.18).

## Stocks that move with natural gas

| Company | Correlation | Price | Model fair value | Gap |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [CRK](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/CRK) Comstock Resources Inc | 0.49 | $14.87 | $13.81 | -7.1% |
| [EXE](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/EXE) Expand Energy Corporation | 0.37 | $91.57 | $118.25 | +29.1% |
| [EQT](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/EQT) EQT Corporation | 0.32 | $56.22 | $50.78 | -9.7% |

Correlation of weekly returns over 104 weeks. Gap = multi-method model fair value differential versus the current price; positive means the price sits below the model estimate.

## Questions and answers

### Is natural gas expensive compared with its history?

Natural Gas at $2.82 per MMBtu is 58% below its inflation-adjusted average since 2000 and sits 16% of the way from its 10-year low to its 10-year high. Data as of 2026-10-28. Historical comparison only, not a forecast or investment advice.

### How does today's natural gas price compare after inflation?

In today's dollars, natural gas is 57.6% below its inflation-adjusted average since 2000, higher than 7% of month-ends since then. Data as of 2026-10-28.

### Where is natural gas within its 10-year range?

At $2.817, natural gas sits at 16% of its 10-year range (low $1.480, high $9.680), where 0% is the low and 100% the high. Data as of 2026-10-28.

### Which stocks move with natural gas?

Over the last 104 weeks, the covered stocks whose weekly returns moved most closely with natural gas include CRK (correlation 0.49), EXE (correlation 0.37), EQT (correlation 0.32). Correlation describes past co-movement only.

### What does the natural gas futures curve show?

contango: Later-month futures cost more than the near month. That usually means supply is ample now and storage costs are priced in; rolling futures forward costs the holder the gap. As of 2026-10-28.

## Related

[WTI Crude](https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/wti-crude-oil) · [Brent Crude](https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/brent-crude-oil) · [All commodity markets](https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis)

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Fair value is a model estimate under stated assumptions — not a price target, not a prediction, and not a recommendation. This page is research information, not investment advice. Equity Rank is not a registered investment adviser.