Gold Price Analysis
Gold: $4,052 per troy oz. One month -2.8%, one year +2.2%. Against its inflation-adjusted average since 2000: +130.8%; higher than 97% of month-ends in today's dollars.
Analysis
Gold closed at $4,007.90 per troy ounce on 23 October 2026. Within its one-year range it sits at 4.4% of the distance from low to high, about 9.8% below its one-year average. Over five years the position is 64.5%, and over ten years it is 68.7%. Adjusted for inflation, the price is 25.4% below its February 2026 high, but it sits in the 96.5th percentile of its inflation-adjusted history since 2000.
The futures curve is flat, with near and later contracts costing about the same (roll yield of -1.4%). Gold to silver stands at 74.29 ounces, against a 10-year average of 80.73. Gold to platinum, at 2.58 ounces, sits in the 96.3rd percentile of its history, and gold to oil, at 38.81 barrels, sits in the 89.8th. Over the past 120 months, prices tended to fall when the 10-year real interest rate rose (correlation of -0.45), with little link to 10-year inflation expectations (+0.01). Jewelry, central-bank purchases and investment demand compare with mine output and recycled scrap, which makes up roughly a quarter of yearly supply.
Of 42 linked stocks, 26 have model fair values, and 20 of those trade below them, with a median gap of 8.2% below model fair value. Kinross Gold (KGC), with a correlation of 0.81 to gold, sits 18.8% below its model fair value, and AngloGold Ashanti (AU), with a correlation of 0.80, sits 4.3% below. Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), with a correlation of 0.83, trades 6.0% above its model fair value, and Alamos Gold (AGI), with a correlation of 0.80, trades 7.2% above.
Where the price sits
| Period | Low | Average | High | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | $3,948 | $4,444 | $5,318 | 8% |
| 5 years | $1,623 | $2,730 | $5,318 | 66% |
| 10 years | $1,128 | $2,105 | $5,318 | 70% |
| Since 2000 | $255.10 | $1,352 | $5,318 | 75% |
Futures curve: flat
Near and later futures cost about the same — no strong pull either way from the curve. As of 2026-10-28.
Ratios
- Gold / Silver is 75.79 ounces of silver per ounce of gold, in the upper part of its range since 2000 (higher than 67% of month-ends; average 69.12).
- Gold / Platinum is 2.62 ounces of platinum per ounce of gold, near the top of its range since 2000 (higher than 97% of month-ends; average 1.23).
- Copper / Gold is 1.64 copper $/lb per gold $/oz, ×1000, near the bottom of its range since 2000 (higher than 12% of month-ends; average 2.54).
- Gold / Oil is 39.42 barrels of WTI per ounce of gold, near the top of its range since 2000 (higher than 91% of month-ends; average 21.05).
What moves gold
Demand: Jewelry, mainly in China and India; Central-bank reserve purchases; Investment: bars, coins and gold-backed funds; A small share for electronics.
Supply: Mine output, led by China, Australia, Russia and Canada; Recycled scrap, roughly a quarter of yearly supply.
Worth watching: Real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates: gold pays no income, so it has tended to do better when real rates fall; The U.S. dollar; Central-bank purchases.
Over the last 120 months, prices have tended to fall in months when the 10-year real interest rate rose — a clear link (correlation -0.45).
Monthly moves have had little link to changes in the 10-year inflation expectations (correlation +0.01).
Stocks that move with gold
| Company | Correlation | Price | Model fair value | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Limited | 0.83 | $183.11 | $170.91 | -6.7% |
| KGC Kinross Gold Corporation | 0.81 | $22.98 | $28.44 | +23.8% |
| WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp | 0.81 | $126.57 | Not published | — |
| AGI Alamos Gold Inc | 0.80 | $31.67 | $29.82 | -5.8% |
| AU AngloGold Ashanti plc | 0.80 | $87.25 | $91.12 | +4.4% |
| OR Osisko Gold Ro | 0.78 | $34.00 | Not published | — |
| GFI Gold Fields Ltd ADR | 0.78 | $36.23 | $49.87 | +37.6% |
| TFPM Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp | 0.76 | $29.87 | Not published | — |
| ARIS Aris Mining Corporation | 0.76 | $16.44 | $18.99 | +15.5% |
| IAG IAMGold Corporation | 0.76 | $17.28 | $23.36 | +35.2% |
| DRD DRDGOLD Limited ADR | 0.76 | $25.13 | Not published | — |
| CGAU Centerra Gold Inc | 0.75 | $21.18 | $24.32 | +14.8% |
Questions and answers
Is gold expensive compared with its history?
Gold at $4,052 per troy oz is 131% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2000 and sits 70% of the way from its 10-year low to its 10-year high. Data as of 2026-10-28. Historical comparison only, not a forecast or investment advice.
How does today's gold price compare after inflation?
In today's dollars, gold is 130.8% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2000, higher than 97% of month-ends since then. Data as of 2026-10-28.
Where is gold within its 10-year range?
At $4,052, gold sits at 70% of its 10-year range (low $1,128, high $5,318), where 0% is the low and 100% the high. Data as of 2026-10-28.
Which stocks move with gold?
Over the last 104 weeks, the covered stocks whose weekly returns moved most closely with gold include AEM (correlation 0.83), KGC (correlation 0.81), WPM (correlation 0.81). Correlation describes past co-movement only.
What does the gold futures curve show?
flat: Near and later futures cost about the same — no strong pull either way from the curve. As of 2026-10-28.