# Copper Price Analysis

Source: https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/copper

Industrial metals · front-month futures, $/lb · data as of 2026-10-29

Copper: $6.581 per lb. One month +0.6%, one year +25.7%. Against its inflation-adjusted average since 2000: +63.9%; higher than 98% of month-ends in today's dollars.

## Analysis

Copper closed at $6.51 per pound on October 23, 2026. That is about 84% of the way up its one-year range ($4.93 to $6.80) and near the top of its five- and ten-year ranges. The price is down 2.6% over the past month, up 28% over one year, and up 196% over ten years. After adjusting for inflation, it sits about 4% below its 2011 peak and roughly 62% above its average since 2000.

The futures curve is flat, so near and later contracts cost about the same. Copper's ratio to gold is 1.62, below its 10-year average of 1.93. Over the last 120 months, prices tended to fall when 10-year real interest rates rose (correlation -0.20, a modest link) and to rise when 10-year inflation expectations rose (correlation +0.38, a clear link). Demand comes mainly from construction, power grids and electric vehicles, and China uses about half of the world's refined copper. New mines in Chile, Peru, Congo and China take a decade or more to build, and scrap recycling adds supply.

Fifteen stocks are linked to copper, and nine of them have model fair values. Seven of those nine trade below their model fair values, with a median gap of 9.9% below. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO) trade about 36% and 45% above their model fair values, while Rio Tinto (RIO) is about 10% below and BHP is about 1% below. Correlations with copper run from +0.50 to +0.55 across the most-linked names, including Taseko Mines (TGB) and Ivanhoe Electric (IE), which have no model fair value.

Written for the week of 2026-10-26; data as of 2026-10-23. Historical facts and model estimates, not forecasts or investment advice.

## Where the price sits

| Period | Low | Average | High | Position |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 year | $4.930 | $6.060 | $6.800 | 88% |
| 5 years | $3.210 | $4.550 | $6.800 | 94% |
| 10 years | $2.120 | $3.800 | $6.800 | 95% |
| Since 2000 | $0.600 | $2.950 | $6.800 | 96% |

Position: 0% = at the period low, 100% = at the high.

## Futures curve: backwardation

Near-month futures cost more than later months. That usually means supply is tight now; a holder of futures who rolls forward earns the gap (positive roll yield). As of 2026-10-29.

## Ratios

- Copper / Gold is 1.63 copper $/lb per gold $/oz, ×1000, near the bottom of its range since 2000 (higher than 12% of month-ends; average 2.54).

## What moves copper

**Demand:** Construction wiring and plumbing; Power grids and electrical equipment; Electric vehicles and renewable power (several times the copper of the older equivalents); China uses about half of the world's refined copper.

**Supply:** Mines in Chile, Peru, Congo and China; new mines take a decade or more to build; Scrap recycling.

**Worth watching:** Chinese property and grid spending; Mine disruptions and ore grades; Exchange inventories.

Over the last 120 months, prices have tended to fall in months when the 10-year real interest rate rose — a modest link (correlation -0.20).

Over the last 120 months, prices have tended to rise in months when the 10-year inflation expectations rose — a clear link (correlation +0.38).

## Stocks that move with copper

| Company | Correlation | Price | Model fair value | Gap |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [FCX](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/FCX) Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc | 0.55 | $66.14 | $48.98 | -25.9% |
| [RIO](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/RIO) Rio Tinto ADR | 0.54 | $83.25 | $92.92 | +11.6% |
| [SCCO](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/SCCO) Southern Copper Corporation | 0.53 | $191.75 | $103.69 | -45.9% |
| [TGB](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/TGB) Taseko Mines Ltd | 0.52 | $7.86 | Not published | — |
| [BHP](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/BHP) BHP Group Limited | 0.51 | $81.82 | $82.32 | +0.6% |
| [IE](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/IE) Ivanhoe Electric Inc. | 0.50 | $8.42 | Not published | — |
| [HBM](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/HBM) Hudbay Minerals Inc. | 0.48 | $23.36 | $23.28 | -0.3% |
| [TECK](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/TECK) Teck Resources Ltd Class B | 0.45 | $63.72 | Not published | — |
| [ERO](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/ERO) Ero Copper Corp | 0.41 | $31.12 | $37.55 | +20.7% |
| [SKE](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/SKE) Skeena Resources Ltd | 0.41 | $28.31 | Not published | — |
| [VALE](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/VALE) Vale SA ADR | 0.41 | $11.18 | Not published | — |
| [IPX](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/IPX) IperionX Limited American Depositary Share | 0.40 | $17.04 | Not published | — |

Correlation of weekly returns over 104 weeks. Gap = multi-method model fair value differential versus the current price; positive means the price sits below the model estimate.

## Questions and answers

### Is copper expensive compared with its history?

Copper at $6.58 per lb is 64% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2000 and sits 95% of the way from its 10-year low to its 10-year high. Data as of 2026-10-29. Historical comparison only, not a forecast or investment advice.

### How does today's copper price compare after inflation?

In today's dollars, copper is 63.9% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2000, higher than 98% of month-ends since then. Data as of 2026-10-29.

### Where is copper within its 10-year range?

At $6.581, copper sits at 95% of its 10-year range (low $2.120, high $6.800), where 0% is the low and 100% the high. Data as of 2026-10-29.

### Which stocks move with copper?

Over the last 104 weeks, the covered stocks whose weekly returns moved most closely with copper include FCX (correlation 0.55), RIO (correlation 0.54), SCCO (correlation 0.53). Correlation describes past co-movement only.

### What does the copper futures curve show?

backwardation: Near-month futures cost more than later months. That usually means supply is tight now; a holder of futures who rolls forward earns the gap (positive roll yield). As of 2026-10-29.

## Related

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Fair value is a model estimate under stated assumptions — not a price target, not a prediction, and not a recommendation. This page is research information, not investment advice. Equity Rank is not a registered investment adviser.