# Aluminum Price Analysis

Source: https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/aluminum

Industrial metals · front-month futures, $/tonne · data as of 2026-10-28

Aluminum: $3,278 per tonne. One month -3.2%, one year +16.2%. Against its inflation-adjusted average since 2014: +17.8%; higher than 86% of month-ends in today's dollars.

## Analysis

Aluminum closed at $3,136.75 per tonne on October 23, 2026. Its range position is 30% over the past year, 50.1% over five years and 61.4% over ten years, where 0% is the range low and 100% is the range high. Adjusted for inflation, the price sits 12.8% above its average since May 2014 and 23.3% below its March 2022 peak. Over the past year it is up 13.3%.

Over the last 120 months, prices have tended to fall when 10-year real interest rates rose, a modest link (correlation -0.19), and to rise when 10-year inflation expectations rose (correlation +0.28). Smelting is very power-hungry, and China produces over half of the world's aluminum. Demand comes mainly from transport, packaging, and construction. Electricity prices for smelters, Chinese output caps, and trade tariffs are the factors most closely watched. In October, aluminum has averaged a 1.3% gain and rose in 9 of 12 years.

Seven stocks are linked to aluminum. Of the six with model fair values, four trade below them, with a median gap of 26.4%, where a positive figure means the price sits below model fair value. Alcoa Corp (AA) sits 121.2% below its model fair value, Kaiser Aluminum (KALU) 35.3% below, and Century Aluminum (CENX) 17.5% below. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) sits 36.3% above its model fair value, and Compass Minerals (CMP) sits 47.9% above.

Written for the week of 2026-10-26; data as of 2026-10-23. Historical facts and model estimates, not forecasts or investment advice.

## Where the price sits

| Period | Low | Average | High | Position |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 year | $2,684 | $3,290 | $4,195 | 39% |
| 5 years | $2,073 | $2,643 | $4,195 | 57% |
| 10 years | $1,452 | $2,369 | $4,195 | 67% |
| Since 2014 | $1,452 | $2,277 | $4,195 | 67% |

Position: 0% = at the period low, 100% = at the high.

## What moves aluminum

**Demand:** Transport (cars, aircraft); Packaging (cans, foil); Construction and power lines.

**Supply:** Smelting is very power-hungry; China makes over half of the world's aluminum; Recycling uses about 5% of the energy of new metal.

**Worth watching:** Electricity prices for smelters; Chinese output caps; Trade tariffs.

Over the last 120 months, prices have tended to fall in months when the 10-year real interest rate rose — a modest link (correlation -0.19).

Over the last 120 months, prices have tended to rise in months when the 10-year inflation expectations rose — a modest link (correlation +0.28).

## Stocks that move with aluminum

| Company | Correlation | Price | Model fair value | Gap |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AA](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/AA) Alcoa Corp | 0.52 | $40.21 | $74.01 | +84.1% |
| [CENX](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/CENX) Century Aluminum Company | 0.39 | $35.10 | $42.01 | +19.7% |
| [KALU](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/KALU) Kaiser Aluminum Corporation | 0.33 | $120.85 | $178.05 | +47.3% |
| [FCX](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/FCX) Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc | 0.32 | $66.60 | $41.94 | -37.0% |
| [CMP](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/CMP) Compass Minerals International Inc | 0.31 | $22.93 | $12.94 | -43.6% |
| [VALE](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/VALE) Vale SA ADR | 0.31 | $11.47 | Not published | — |
| [CSTM](https://www.equity-rank.com/stocks/CSTM) Constellium Nv | 0.31 | $24.43 | $45.15 | +84.8% |

Correlation of weekly returns over 104 weeks. Gap = multi-method model fair value differential versus the current price; positive means the price sits below the model estimate.

## Questions and answers

### Is aluminum expensive compared with its history?

Aluminum at $3,278 per tonne is 18% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2014 and sits 67% of the way from its 10-year low to its 10-year high. Data as of 2026-10-28. Historical comparison only, not a forecast or investment advice.

### How does today's aluminum price compare after inflation?

In today's dollars, aluminum is 17.8% above its inflation-adjusted average since 2014, higher than 86% of month-ends since then. Data as of 2026-10-28.

### Where is aluminum within its 10-year range?

At $3,278, aluminum sits at 67% of its 10-year range (low $1,452, high $4,195), where 0% is the low and 100% the high. Data as of 2026-10-28.

### Which stocks move with aluminum?

Over the last 104 weeks, the covered stocks whose weekly returns moved most closely with aluminum include AA (correlation 0.52), CENX (correlation 0.39), KALU (correlation 0.33). Correlation describes past co-movement only.

## Related

[Copper](https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/copper) · [US Steel (HRC)](https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis/steel) · [All commodity markets](https://www.equity-rank.com/commodity-analysis)

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Fair value is a model estimate under stated assumptions — not a price target, not a prediction, and not a recommendation. This page is research information, not investment advice. Equity Rank is not a registered investment adviser.