Verizon (VZ) Stock Analysis 2026: 5.85% Dividend, Risk Score 15.5, and 50% Screener MoS Before April 27 Earnings

Verizon sits at $46.78 — nearly identical to its Graham Number fair value of $47.57 — while generating a 5.85% dividend yield and carrying one of the lowest Risk Scores in the entire Equity Rank screener: 15.5 out of 100.

That Risk Score puts VZ in the bottom 5% of the screener by volatility and fundamental risk — lower than most utilities, most healthcare names, and even most Treasuries proxies. The question is whether the screener's 50.6% margin of safety reflects genuine undervaluation, or whether Verizon's $170B+ net debt changes the picture.

This analysis covers the valuation methods, the VZ vs AT&T comparison, the fixed wireless access thesis, and what to watch on April 27.

Verizon at a Glance (April 2026)

Data: Equity Rank screener (April 17, 2026) and AlphaVantage.

The Graham Number Is Telling You Something

The Graham Number — Benjamin Graham's formula for intrinsic value based on earnings and book value — computes to $47.57 for VZ at current inputs ($4.06 EPS — $24.77 book value — 22.5 = $2,263.6 ? v$2,263.6 = $47.57).

Current price: $46.78.

That $0.79 gap means Verizon is trading essentially at its Graham floor. Graham Number isn't a price target — it's the minimum you'd expect a profitable, asset-backed business to be worth over a full market cycle. VZ touching this level means the stock is pricing in essentially zero premium for its franchise, brand, network infrastructure, or future growth.

For income investors, this creates an interesting setup: buying at the Graham floor captures a 5.85% dividend yield while waiting for a mean reversion to sector multiples.

Why the Screener Shows 50.6% Margin of Safety

The Equity Rank screener computes a consensus fair value using sector multiples for Communication Services:

Sector multiples sourced from Equity Rank DEFAULT_SECTOR_MULTIPLES (April 2026). Communication Services weights: PE 35%, P/S 30%, EV/EBITDA 20%, PEG 15%. Screener consensus uses PE, P/S, and EV/EBITDA (normalized), producing ~$94.63 ? 50.6% MoS.

The Critical Caveat: Debt Not Fully Deducted

The screener's EV/EBITDA method applies sector multiples to a simplified EBITDA proxy and does not fully deduct VZ's $170B+ net debt when converting enterprise value to per-share equity value. For a highly leveraged company like Verizon, this overstates the EV/EBITDA fair value.

The most debt-aware method in the table is DDM ($69.77, +32.9% MoS) — which ignores enterprise structure entirely and values the stock purely on its dividend income stream. The Graham Number ($47.57) is the most conservative floor.

A reasonable range for VZ fair value: $47 (Graham floor) to $78 (PE method), with analyst consensus at $51.58 reflecting the most debt-aware market pricing.

The Bull Case: Network Recovery and Fixed Wireless

5.85% yield at near-Graham-floor valuation. VZ's dividend yield hasn't been this high since the COVID low in 2020. The dividend is covered at a forward payout ratio of approximately 56% ($2.735 / $4.92 forward EPS) — sustainable even if earnings compress modestly.

Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is growing fast. Verizon surpassed 4 million FWA subscribers in 2025 and is targeting 8–9 million by 2028. FWA (home internet delivered over 5G) requires no new fiber trenching — pure incremental revenue on existing network capacity. The per-customer margin is roughly 50–60%.

Wireless subscriber recovery. After losing ground to T-Mobile throughout 2022–2024, Verizon has stabilized with competitive unlimited plans and device promotions. Q4 2025 showed net wireless postpaid phone adds turning positive.

FCF yield of ~11%. Estimated FCF (net income + D&A — CapEx — $17.1B + $21B — $16.5B = $21.6B) against a $197B market cap implies an FCF yield near 11%. The dividend consumes only $11.4B of that ($2.735 — 4.18B shares). The remaining $10B goes to debt paydown.

EBITDA growth is accelerating. Verizon's "Network as a Service" and enterprise wireless contracts are driving EBITDA margin expansion. Current $50B EBITDA on $138.2B revenue = 36.2% margin.

The Bear Case: Why VZ Has Been Range-Bound for Five Years

$170B+ net debt is the core constraint. At 3.4x debt/EBITDA, VZ is not distressed, but interest expense of roughly $9–10B/year consumes 60%+ of operating cash flows. Every dollar of earnings growth goes toward debt service before it reaches shareholders.

Revenue growth is structurally low. At 2.0% annual revenue growth on $138B, Verizon is essentially a utility — steady, but not compounding. Wireless is a saturated market in the U.S.

T-Mobile has structurally outgrown VZ. T-Mobile (analyzed earlier this earnings season) generated $16.33 FCF/share at 8.3% FCF yield vs. VZ's estimated $5.17 FCF/share (12.4% of that going to dividend). The competitive dynamic favors the leaner, faster-growing TMUS.

EPS growth is negative. The quarterly EPS growth of -53.3% YoY reflects a large one-time impairment charge in the comparison period, but the underlying earnings trend is flat to declining as pricing competition intensifies.

The stock has gone nowhere for five years. VZ traded at $46–58 in 2018–2019 and trades at $46 today. In five years, the only return has been the dividend. A 5.85% annual dividend is excellent absolute income — but a total-return investor comparing VZ to the S&P 500 has substantially underperformed.

VZ vs AT&T: Two Roads in Telecom

VZ offers a lower-risk, higher-yield profile with less leverage relative to revenue. AT&T offers slightly more upside by analyst consensus and faster revenue growth. Both are heavily debt-financed dividend machines with limited upside from multiple expansion.

The AT&T stock analysis covers the other side of this comparison in detail.

What to Watch on April 27, 2026

Verizon reports Q1 2026 earnings on April 27, 2026. Key data points:

Wireless postpaid net adds. The single most-watched metric. Consensus expects approximately 250,000–300,000 postpaid phone net adds. A miss signals renewed share loss to T-Mobile; a beat suggests the subscriber recovery is broadening.

FWA net adds. VZ has guided for FWA subscriber additions of ~400,000/quarter through 2026. Watch for management to reaffirm or raise the 8–9 million long-term subscriber target.

EBITDA guidance. VZ guided for FY2026 adjusted EBITDA of $52–53B. Any revision up or down moves the stock meaningfully.

Debt reduction. The market will watch total net debt closely. VZ has committed to reaching below 2.5x net debt/EBITDA from the current ~3.4x. Every $1B in debt paydown expands re-rating potential.

Dividend commentary. VZ has increased its dividend annually for 18 consecutive years. Any change in that commentary would be a significant signal.

Explore Verizon's Valuation Further

The Dividend Yield Calculator lets you model VZ's total return under different yield scenarios — at $51 (analyst target) the yield drops to 5.36%, at $60 the yield compresses to 4.56%.

The DCF Calculator lets you model VZ intrinsic value under different EBITDA growth trajectories — from a flat 0% (wireless saturation) to 4% (FWA inflection) — and see how debt paydown affects equity value over 5–10 years.

The P/E Ratio Calculator lets you explore VZ fair value at different earnings multiples on TTM EPS $4.06 and forward EPS $4.92 — from a distressed-telecom 9x to a re-rated 15x.

The Equity Rank screener shows Verizon's full profile alongside all 800 large-cap stocks — Overall Score 68.8, Combined MoS +53.8%, Risk Score 15.5 — updated weekly.

This article is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to purchase or sell Verizon Communications Inc (VZ) shares or any other security. All scores, margin of safety estimates, and other metrics are model-based outputs subject to estimation uncertainty. The screener's 50.6% margin of safety is computed by applying Communication Services sector medians to VZ's trailing fundamentals; the EV/EBITDA method does not fully deduct Verizon's approximately $170B net debt burden, which materially affects per-share equity value. The analyst consensus target of $51.58 (+10% upside) and the DDM fair value of $69.77 (+32.9%) represent more debt-aware estimates. Verizon's 2.0% annual revenue growth, $170B+ net debt, declining EPS trajectory, and competitive pressure from T-Mobile are material risk factors. The 5.85% dividend yield is well-covered by FCF (estimated $21.6B annual FCF vs $11.4B dividend obligation), but any sustained revenue decline or refinancing risk at higher rates could pressure the payout. Past financial performance does not guarantee future results. All investments involve risk, including potential loss of principal. Equity Rank is not a registered investment adviser. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.